Candlesticks - How reliable ?

Two days ago when Dow formed an Engulfing candlesticks pattern as shown above, according to book, this is a bullish pattern, Dow should continue to move higher, but it didn't and instead it has formed two reversal candlesticks, Spinning Tops (as shown below), that have a bigger body than Dojis. So how reliable is candlestick pattern in projecting price movements.

Thomas N Bulkowski is a very successful investor, his investment was so successful that he retired at 36. He has carried out statistical analysis into various chart patterns including candlesticks reversal patterns. According to his research, engulfing pattern has a 63% chances of forming bullish reversal and spinning tops has 50% chances of a trend reversal (what? 50-50?).

It appears that statistically candlestick pattern can be used only as a rough 'better than nothing' indicator.

So, where is Dow heading now? I still like to maintain my projection of waves 7, 8 and 9 for both Dow and KL Composite Index from now until mid-February or end of February. After that I am going to gauge the possibility of a collapse in the coming 'Tiger Year' (4th February 2010 to 3rd February 2011)