Monday, August 17, 2009

World stocks tumble on US consumer worries

Shanghai -5.79%, Bombay -4.07%, Nikkei -3.10%, Hang Seng -3.62% and STI -3.25% the reason as reported in Yahoo - concerns about consumer spending. To me that is only an excuse, the world markets have been running since July 13 without a meaningful correction. A lot of people have been looking for quite sometimes for this correction and have been frustrated times and again by don't know who that kept on pushing the stocks for a higher close.

I still maintained that the rebound since March is a B wave. The main question now is whether the B wave has finished as shown above or this current pullback is only sub-wave 2 of (III), we still have sub-waves 3, 4 and 5 in front.
Hang Seng is the same as Dow. The sharp drop can be sub-wave ii of wave 3 of B Or the B wave is completed.
Singapore STI is the same as Hang Seng and Dow.
The only way to confirm whether wave B has been completed is to look at the magnitude of the pullback. Refer to the 6-month chart above, during the wave (I) up trend, the magnitudes of sub-wave pullback vary from 3.5% to 5%. The major (II) pullback is about 7.5%. If Dow is currently in sub-wave 2, a 3.5% pullback will bring Dow to 9070 as shown and a 5% pullback will bring it to 8930. To me, as long as the Dow does not go below 8900, it is sub-wave 2, it will be followed by sub-wave 3, 4 and 5.
However if Dow goes below 8900, chances is very high that the August 13's closing value of 9398 is the end of wave B.

There are many other possibilities but I shall monitor the Dow based on wave B theory until such time the chart tells me that It is not wave B, it is something else.

2 comments:

Phuah T. S. said...

PKR MP arrested. See video below ;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq75xzjug1A

Some of these police men are more fierce than the bear shown in your photo. lah !!!

Is it an bad omen ? Shall we get out from the market before we get caught by the bear ?

Chan Kwang Yew said...

Nothing to worry lah. If Dow is OK and running. Again it depends on how ugly and serious the situation can develop