Friday, April 10, 2009

Can Rule Out Diagonal Wave 5

Thursday (9 April) Wall Street rally has ruled out the second possibility of 'Diagonal wave 5' mentioned in my previous post. The 6547 level in March with high possibility marked the end of 17 months of downtrend. Possibility 1 alternative B that was mentioned in my previous becomes the most likely scenario. In fact the S&P 500 below has shown a clear break-out even though the Dow has yet to show a clear break away. However, another 100 to 200 points up by Dow after the Good Friday holiday will be sufficient to confirm the wave 3 uptrend.
Last 10 sessions of Dow are forming a corrective a-b-c wave 2 (Possibility 1 alternative B in my previous post). The 3.14% surge yesterday marks the begining of wave 3 that can bring Dow to 10,000 level.

Under this scenario for Dow, KL composite can be interpreted as having a very bullish i-ii and 1-dot 2-dots of sub-wave 3 formation. Currently it is forming the 3-dots of sub-wave iii. Next week KLCI will move higher to finish the 3-dots follows by 4-dots one or two days pull back and another surge to form 5-dots to complete the iii.
However, if Dow fails to move higher after the holiday and instead of breaking the ceiling, the Dow starts to move lower, it is possible that Dow is taking a short consolidation as shown below before the next surge. So there is nothing to worry, after a few days of consolidation to form wave (2) as shown, Dow will proceed to form the wave 3 that can put on another 2,500 points
To move in-line with Dow under this scenario, KL Composite is likely to take the form as per chart shown below, a leading wedge formation of i-ii-iii-iv-v which by itself is a bullish formation. Similarly, there is nothing to worry, KLCI can move up by another 160 points after the completion of wave (2) which can take the form of a zig-zag a-b-c (2) or a straight down (2).

No comments: