Thursday, February 19, 2009

American International Group, Inc.


This is the chart of one of the world's largest Insurance Companies, American International Group, Inc. It has operations in 130 countries. AIA is one of its many subsidiaries. From US$72, its stock price has dropped to US$0.59 yesterday with an intra day low of US$0.55, a drop of 99.2%.
In September 2008, when it dropped from US$22 to US$2 within 7 trading days followed by a strong rebound to US$5 within 4 trading days, during this period, a lot of bargain hunters moved into this stock. Even if one managed to get at US$2 and if he did not sell during the rebound to US$5, by now his capital has shrunk by 70%.
If you move in now at 60US cents, if it goes to 30 US cents, 50% of your money can disappear. However, if 6 months down the road, everything is OK, with a strong Wave B rebound, if it can go to US$2, the gain is quite substantial. I am very tempted to take a gamble on the belief that President Obama will not allow it to collapse as the financial and social implication to the American society is too big for him to handle.

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