Thursday, October 24, 2013

When will the assets bubble burst ?




On Federal Reserve's QE

Marc Faber, "The question is not 'tapering', the question is at what point will they increase the asset purchases to say US$150 billion, US$200 billion or a trillion dollars a month." 

"The Fed has boxed itself into a position where there is no exit strategy."

"We are the bubble. We have a colossal asset bubble in the world [and] a leverage or a debt bubble."

"One day this asset inflation will lead to a deflationary collapse one way or the other. We don't know yet what will cause it."

So, when is this 'One day' ?

I remember in 2006 when people talked about 'housing problems' and 'subprime mortgages' Dow was around 11,000, It continued to run until October 2007 to a high of 14,164 for a 3,000 points gain (+28%) before it finally collapsed. Anyone that had exited the market in 2006, he would have missed out the 28% gain.

Looking at the chart, I have two options for Dow at this moment.

It is either Dow has already peaked, it has only 5 major waves (1) to (5),


OR it will continue to run in tandem with Federal Reserve's money printing. Dow has 9 major waves (1) to (9).


At this moment I give the second scenario a higher probability because the FBMKLCI has not finished its 5 up-trend waves.


With the liquidity created by the central bankers and many investment funds holding lots of cash and are very cautious, I don't expect the assets bubble to burst in the near future. At least not this year.


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