Stocks jump more than 3.5%

Stocks in Europe and US rally after global central banks (Europe, US, Japan, British Canada ....... ) announced coordinated action to shore up liquidity in the financial system by reducing their borrowing rates. Market sentiment was also lifted by China announcement to reduce bank reserve levels. This is the first time in three years China eased her monetary policy. It is possible that China has started to feel nervous about the European debt problems.

In fact China Shanghai market has been drooping in the last 28 months since its July 2009 high of 3412 points. SSEC closed today session at 2333 for a 31% drop since July 2009.


Is this the turning point for SSEC? It is possible that China stocks may go in a different direction.

For US and Europe, the major wave C remains.
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World Stocks Rose On New European Hope

US markets opened strongly, gaining 2.8% to 3.5% after one hour of trade.

European bourses gained 3% to 5% at this moment

Asian bourses closed with about 2% gain before the US markets opened.

Looked rather bullish on the hope that the European leaders would unveil new measures to resolve the debt problems.

This is only a technical rebound or short covering rally to me. Any rebound will be short-lived.



This is one of those mini-mini rebound wave. A small one to two days mini wave (iv) rebound as shown above. I don't think the European debt crisis has hit bottom when it has just started to threaten France and Germany.

The key words now is to protect your capital.

Protest against "Peaceful Assembly Bill" by FAC

FAC - Freedom of Assembly Campaign will be holding a protest on 26th November, 2.00pm at KLCC .

There will be a candlelight vigil at Dataran Merdeka at 8.00pm on the same day.

"Just Wear Yellow" FAC Coordinator said.


Massimo From Robert Kuok

Syed Mokhtar's Gardenia has a new competitor.

Dow - Don't you see the bear

At a glance, all the charts looked almost the same. The shape is the same except the magnitude of advance and decline. Dow has been holding very well despite of all its problems. Dow has given back only 21% of what it has gained from March 2009's low to April 2011's high.

FTSE has given back 34%

DAX -51%

CAC40 is the worst at -79%

In Asia Singapore has given back 33%

Australia -47%

Taiwan also -47%

Hang Seng -54%

All the charts have only 3 waves up since the 2009 bottom except Hong Kong. (Personally I would like to push the the wave 1-2 of Hong Kong to the left to be the last down wave of the 2007-2008 bear run). The 2009-2012 rebound is definitely a B wave and we have gone through one-third way of C. We are at the early stage of wave 3 of C at this moment.

In Europe, so far 5 governments have toppled, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, but the debts problems remained. Hedge funds are having good times moving from country to country hammering the Government securities. "See you at 7" seemed to be the target.

Next year, Europe will need to raise more than US$1.5 trillion to refinance maturing bonds at a much higher rate. With growing debts and the proposed austerity measures, that will lead to a shrinking GDP in general. Unemployment rate will go up, consumption will go down, even China may go into recession due to a slow down in its export. US economy is already in 'deep shit', I really can't find any reason for the market not to go south.



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Peaceful Assembly Bill #@%?&#@

The Government has promised a political reform to allow "peaceful gatherings without permit" by scrapping Section 27 of the Police Act that requires a permit before holding any assembly.




A new "Peaceful Assembly Bill" was table today in the Parliament. Among the salient points of the bill are :

- No street protest are allowed
- Organisers must give a 30-day notice to the OCPD
- Those below 21 cannot organise an assembly
- An assembly cannot be held within 50m of a prohibited area
- The police may arrest without warrant organisers or participants who do not comply with the restrictions and conditions imposed.
- The Home minister may amend any sections in the Bill
- The Home Minister is allowed to make regulation for better execution of the Bill.
- Those who fail to adhere to the regulation can be imposed with a fine not exceeding Rm 10,000.00


How to have anti lynas protest??
Children under 15 are not allowed to say 'NO' to lynas, can be fined up to Rm10,000.00



Really #@$%&$#@%^&*?<#%&@%@#$%$@&?@#$%!&?

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Dow - Finally confirmed. It is wave 3 of C

Buyers was able to keep the Dow that has only 30 component stocks above the lower support line but the S&P 500 has punched through the lower support as shown below.


The punch-through with a gap is even more glaring for Nasdaq. Finally it can be confirmed that we are at wave 3. We are in fact in wave iii of (iii) 0f i 0f 3, still a long way to go, hopefully we can see the bottom by December 2012.


Wave 2 is uaually the last chance for the hardcore bull to get out before the very damaging wave 3 runs wild.


STATISTIC

We are always the No.1 in this sort of thing.



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Dow - Lower resistance broken

Dow finally moved out of the wedge on the lower end, chances is getting higher that the October high is the end of wave 2. With the mini waves i-ii, 1-2 and a small one dot-two dot, if this is the right interpretation, the next down trend will have to be a dynamic sharp drop to confirm that the wave 3 is unfolding.


I still cannot completely rule out the second option as the last mini wave e of the a-b-c-d-e corrective wave can either stop short or overshot. Try to look for confirmation next week.


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Tail end of wave 2 - Don't Play Play

I still like to maintain that the current rebound since October is the wave 2 rebound. It is possible that the wave 2 has ended and even if it has not ended, it may drag on for another say about 3 weeks (plus-minus) to complete the sub-wave iii and wave 2 before the wave 3 plunge begins.

Malaysia Boleh

Two months ago on 15th September, 3 anti-corruption officers from MACC were reported to have robbed a moneychanger of US$300,000.00 at KLIA. They were arrested on 17th September after the victim has picked them out during an identification parade. Police had recovered a portion of the missing US$300,000.00.

It was reported yesterday that the Rm 11,700.oo and a wallet belonging to the MACC officers have gone missing from the Selangor Police Headquarters. It can either be "Housebreaking" or "Disposing of Evidence". Since it happened inside the State Police Headquarters, it appeared to me that "Disposing of Evidence" is more likely. This is not the first time that exhibits kept by the police went missing.


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Culture

BN's View

Muhyiddin's response to a call for Shahrizat to resign

(A soft loan of Rm 250 million was given to NFC)

MCA President

His wife had forgiven him for his mistake of going to the same hotel and the same room

Japanese Culture

Korean's Way






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European and US markets surged on Friday.

European and US markets surged by around 2.5% on Friday after the Italian Senate passed a crucial austerity budget and the the Italian bond yields dropped below 7%.

Dow moved above 12,000 level again at 12,153 which is about 5% below its 2011's high of 12,810. With the rebound on Thursday and Friday, Dow has formed a contracting wedge that can breakout on either sides.

In the next few days if Dow breaks out of the wedge on the down side, then my previous wave count can still be maintained, i.e. Dow has completed its wave 2 and has started its wave 3 of major wave C.



However, if Dow breaks out on its upper sides, then it is likely that its wave 2 has not been completed yet as shown below.


Can austerity measures solve the debt problems of Greece and Italy? Ireland has put in place its austerity programme but its current unemployment rate is about 14% and the Irish bond yield is above 8%.

The austerity budget approved by the Italian Senate is going to slow down the Italian economy further, GDP will be lower and with a higher borrowing cost I don't think its debt position can be improved.


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Gong Linna - Tan Te (Perturbed)

One of my friend insisted that I must listen to this song Tan Te or Perturbed by a Chinese folk song singer Gong Linna.

忐忑-龚琳娜

No lyric, very funny but is nice to listen. This song spreads like wildfire across China early this year. I really like her facial expression.

The same song by a cute 7 years old Chinese girl.





Have a nice weekend.



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Italy 10-year bond hit 7.45%

Dow dropped 3.2%, 389 points to 11,780 at the close of Wednesday trading after the Italian bond yield surged pass the critical 7% level. With 10 year bond yield at 7.45% and 2-year at 7.29%, many economists perceive this to be economically unsustainable. With a total public debts at 2.6 trillion euros that need to roll over sometimes in the future, is there a way for the Italian to get out from this mess?

As for Dow, is this the starting of mini wave 3 of sub-wave i of wave 3 of its major wave C ?



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Galactic Alignment - Winter Solstice 2012

The Movie 2012 is rather interesting, it talked about the Earth's polar shift and the end of Mayan calendar by 2012. In the last few months, off and on I read articles related to these topics. Some articles are very technical and some have painted a rather scary picture. The following is my understanding of the Mayan Calendar and the galactic alignment on 21st December, 2012's Winter Solstice.

The Mayan Calendar

It was believed that the Mayan Calendar was constructed around 250 - 900 AD. They were highly accurate astronomers that were able to track planetary movement and cycle in the solar system and in the milky way. Based on their observation on the stars, they had developed the 'long Count Calendar' that started on 11th August 3114BC and will end 5126 years later on 21st December, 2012 Winter Solstice. The Mayans predicted an age of enlightenment when the calendar ended. It has been confirmed that on Winter Solstice 2012, a rare astronomical event occurs, Galactic alignment will take place.

For further reading on Mayan Calendar click 'Long Count Calendar'

Galactic Alignment

Our Galaxy, the Milky way

The Milky Way is 100,000 light year across and only 1,000 light year thick as shown below. The center of the Milky Way galaxy is a giant blackhole. Click Galactic Center Blackhole
for more information.



Our solar system with the solar plane, or ecliptic plane is inclined at about 60 degrees to the galactic plane.



The whole solar system that moves within the Milky Way as a single unit, takes about 220 million years to complete a single journey orbit around the center of the galaxy. As the whole solar system travels in orbit around the center of the galaxy, it also bobs up and down of the galactic plane indicated by a galactic equator as shown below.



The whole solar system moves up and down within 500 light years distance above and below the galactic plane or galactic equator. It takes 64 million year to complete a cycle. If my interpretation on what I have read is correct, on the Winter Solstice of 2012, on 21st December, the whole solar system crosses the galactic equator from above the galactic plane to below the galactic plane (a once in 32 million year event, how lucky. Will there be a polar shift ?). On that Winter Solstice, the position of the earth, the sun and the center blackhole of the milky way galaxy will be in one alignment as they cross the galactic equator. Will there be more volcanic activities and abnormal weather as we approach 21st December 2012 ?

May God Bless You. Amen.


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Roses

I Love Friday Night

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Dow - Wait for confirmation

Still unable to confirm whether the wave 2 rebound has been completed.

Looking at the wave count below, it appears that Dow has completed three mini waves (i)-(ii)-(iii) signalling the completion of wave 2.



But when I looked at the candlestick chart, at a glance there are 5 mini waves 1-2-3-4-5 to form the mini wave i. The current pullback is mini wave ii, Dow has yet to complete its wave 2.



To predict short term movement can be suicidal. Anyway, if wave 2 has yet to be completed, Dow is at the tail-end of it. just sit back, relax and wait for Dow to unfold.



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World markets crumbled

First Headline

Greek Government has proposed to put its austerity plan to a public vote. If the plan failed to go through, Greece could drop the European currency and default on its debts.

World markets crumbled on hearing the proposal by Greek Prime minister.



Asian closed with about 2% down.



French CAC40 and German DAX dropped more that 4% at this moment.



US market dropped about 2% after about 2 hours of trading. If Dow dropped more than 2% at the close, the probability is high that the wave 2 rebound has ended.


Personally I expect the Greeks to protest against any austerity measure and then continue with their happy life under the Warm Mediterranean Sun.



I have been searching for a possible cause for Dow to reach 5,000. I think finally it is still the European debt problem and a possible disintegration of the Euro to pull down the world markets.

Second Headline

MF Global Filed for Bankruptcy Protection

MF Global, a 200-year-old futures brokerage, filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday, the first to go bust in the current European debt crisis.

It owns US$6.3 billions of Italian, Spanish, Belgian, Portuguese and Irish debt. Its stock price plunged 60% last week.




George Soros on the proposed European Plan to fix its debt problems.

"Unfortunately it is not the last crisis because the fundamental issues have not been settled. It is clear that the amount of debts that Greece has accumulated and is accumulating is untenable and the country is effectively insolvent."



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