Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Dow, Marc Faber, Robert Prechter

Since the march's low, Dow has rebounded 60%, a magnitude not many investors have expected.
Dow gained another 132 points to reach a 2009 height of 10,540 but remained below the upper trend line. Is Dow going to break the upper trend line ? or whether it has reach a temporary top?
Volume remained low at 4.4 billions, momentum is lacking, it is possible that it has reached its target for its major wave (III).


The latest view from Marc Faber, Dr. Doom.

On equity, "S&P may decline from its current level ( 1100) to around 900 (18% drop). It may go up to 1200 next year."

On Gold, "I don't think that you will see gold below a USD1000 per ounce probably ever again. May be gold at this level is a better buy than it was USD300 per ounce in 2001."

On oil, "Very little downside."


Chart Guru, Robert Prechter - Elliott Wave International President, who believes the bear market rally is reaching a major top.

On equity, "Wall Street is setting investors for another Hurting." "2010 will be a year of horrible market declines."

On gold, "Just because everyone is telling you to buy (gold), it doesn't mean they're right."

On US dollar, "Dollar is making a bottom." "It will rally because there's so much debt."

I always believe there is no way to pinpoint the market's turning point because the market can not exist if there is a way. Nouriel Roubini, who has projected the 2007 and 2008 down trend rightly, on 12th March, after Dow has recovered from its 9th March's low of 6547 to 7170, he was talking about new lows in the next 12 to 18 months.

Glenn Neely, a prominent Elliott Wave analyst, declared on 16th June when Dow reached 8506, "March - June rally is now ending." "During the next 6 months (from June) S&P will decline 50%." Five months have passed, Dow put on another 23%. Most likely he has corrected his view in July when Dow did not behave as he has anticipated.

It is really difficult to read the market precisely. Amen.

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