On the eve of 53rd Merdeka Celebration

Courtesy of Wikipedia

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Independence Speech by Tunku

On the eve of 53rd Merdeka I just wish that we can have more Malaysian like Art Harun, Dato' Shafee Yahya, Dato' Ramli, ............. ......................... Din Merican ....... and ....................

please visit Din Merican's blog at:

The Malaysian DJ Blogger

that

Interesting interesting

Dow - The starting of wave iii of (3) of B ?

Dow gained 165 points (1.6%) to close at 10150 on Friday. Can this be the starting of the wave iii of wave (3) of major wave B as shown above ?




Friday's candlestick formed a 'Bullish Engulfing' pattern. According Bulkowski, this pattern has a 63% chance of a trend reversal.






If it does reverse and if wave iii has the same magnitude as wave i, the target for wave iii is about 11,100. However, if the magnitude of wave iii is very much less than that of wave i, then wave (3) is very likely to reach the top of wave (1) to form a double tops to complete the major wave B.

It is interesting to note that even though Dow and Nasdaq have their historical peaks at different times as shown below.

The current wave (iii) run-up (if trend does reverse) is the same for both of them. Dow is on wave (iii) of major wave B whereas Nasdaq is on wave (iii) of major wave D.

A song that I can listen to over and over again

Wo-oh Yay Yay I Really Don't Know What To Say

Unable to do anything

Dead body

Helpless officers

Is Dow going to plunge ?

Dow dropped close to 400 points in the last four days to closed at 10,040 on Tuesday. It has dropped another 55 points after 1 hour of trading on Wednesday morning but I don't think Dow is going to plunge from this level if my reading that Dow is currently on its sub-wave ii of its wave 3 as shown below is correct. I am expecting a sub-wave iii rebound soon.



However if Dow continues to drop further to below 9686 level that will mean that the above chart interpretation is wrong, then it is likely that the wave 2 of the major wave B has not been completed yet. Under this scenario, Dow can go to as low as 9,000 to complete its wave 2.
This is possible but I don't think so.


If Dow can reverse from its current level of around 10,000 as shown above, its sub-wave iii is likely to reach 11,100 level. A more likely scenario.

Inch Kenneth

Inch Kenneth has form 3 red candlesticks in the last 3 days as shown below. If it can hold above 58 sens, it may be forming its wave vi before resuming its up-trend to form its wave vii.


If Inch Kenneth is unable to hold above 58 sens level, it is possible that its wave 3 has been completed and it is forming its wave 4 that can have a low of 54.5 sens as shown below. Wave 4 may take more than 1 month to complete.

American Pie

To visit Art Harun blog is one of my routine whenever I have the access to the internet. All his articles were so nicely, precisely and beautifully written. His latest article published today, AMERICAN PIE REVISITED really touches my heart. He ended his post with the following:

I am sad with rotten feeling and at the same time very angry.

I copied from youtube - American Pie by Don McLean with lyrics. This has always been one of my favorite song but with a new feeling from now on.

Update on Dow and Inch Kenneth

Dow dropped a total of 202 points on Thursday and Friday indicating that its sub-wave (ii) has not been completed yet. It is expected to be completed soon.


Inch Kenneth moved steadily upwards last week to closed at 63.5 sens last Friday. It is forming its wave 3 of major wave (V).



In the coming week if Inch Kenneth starts to move downwards to below 60 sens, it is likely that sub-wave v has been completed. Then the next pullback can either be sub-wave vi or wave 4.



However, if it continues to move upwards next week, then the last pullback could be a mini wave (ii) of sub-wave v as shown above.

Irrespective of what is going to be the outcome next week, Inch Kenneth has yet to complete its upwards movement.

Dow - How low can major wave 6 go ?

Under this scenario, October 2007 high of 14,164 is the major wave 5. The 53% drop in 17 months to 6,547 by March 2009 is wave A of the major wave 6. The uptrend since March 2009 is the rebound wave B that consists of three waves 1-2-3. The five waves (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) and (v) from March 2009 until April 2010 is wave 1 of B. The two months correction in May and June is wave 2 of B.

Wave 3 of B started in early July. By end of July, sub-wave (i) of wave 3 of B was completed. The question now is whether the last two days rebound signal the completion of sub-wave (ii) ? and the starting of sub-wave (iii) ? All these depend on whether the 10300 level can hold. Dow at this moment has dropped about 180 points to around 10,200 after two hours of trading. It appears that sub-wave (ii) has not been completed yet.

Anyway sub-wave (ii) is expected to be completed soon and I expect sub-wave (iii), (iv) and (v) to be completed before end of September 2010.

The next down trend wave C of major wave 6 is going to be very damaging, and if wave C has the same magnitude as wave A that dropped 53%, the end of major wave 6 can go to as low as 5,300 if wave B ends at 10300.

Dow - Assuming Mega Wave 6 Formation is on course

With the above assumption Dow is currently at major wave B of Mega wave 6


With the 103 points rebound, I will assume that wave (ii) of B has formed, Dow has started its wave (iii) which has a minimum target of 113oo.



For Bursa Malaysia, same as Dow, its wave 3 has started with a minimum target price of 2800. There is a potential inverted head and shoulders formation.

It appears that the Industrial Index is at sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of the major 3. In short it is at wave iii of (iii) of 3, trading activity as well as volume has to pickup from now on.

Ingress Consolidated Bhd

Ingress put on 3 sen to close at 84.5 sen with an intraday high of 89 sen. The price movement suggested that Ingress is currently forming its sub-wave vii of wave 1 of major wave (III).


After the current sub-wave vii, it has to completed its sub-wave viii and ix to form its wave 1 of major wave (III), still a long way to go to complete its major (III).

Its OBV is very strong with an accumulated on-balanced volume of 40 millions shares.


The long-term chart (10-Year) shows that the strong accumulation phase started in July 2009 when the price dropped to below 20 sen. The target price for major wave (III) is Rm1.40 and major (V) at around Rm 2.00, but it is going to take a very long time to reach there unless it can move up with a steeper gradient.