Saturday, September 5, 2020

Dow (28,133) - What's Next?

Dow dropped another 159 points or -0.56% on Friday after its 808 points (-2.77%) drop on Thursday. 

From the 30-minute interval 3-day chart, one can see that during Friday trading session Dow dropped to an intraday low of 27,664 for a 628 points or -2.2% drop to complete a 3-wave wave a before rebounded to 28,320 to complete a 3-wave wave b

With this 3-wave-down wave a followed by another 3-wave-up rebound wave b instead of  a 5-wave down followed by a 3-wave rebound, the option of a 14% major wave 2 correction that I mentioned on Thursday can be safely ruled out temporarily.

If Dow were to go lower on Monday, it is likely that Dow is trying to complete its wave c as well as sub-wave iv before its next sub-wave v run-up.

If the next sub-wave v run-up is unable to go higher than 30,000 level, the end of sub-wave v will also be the end of wave (v) and the major wave 1. The subsequent major wave 2 is expected to pullback to the wave (iv) level for a 17% correction.


But if the next sub-wave v is able to go above 30,000 level, then the magnitude of the wave (v) will be bigger than the magnitude of wave (iii), then the major wave 1 is likely to have 9-wave as the wave (iii) of a 5-wave run-up cannot be the shortest wave.

If Dow can move higher next Monday before moving south again in the following day, the next possibility is to have a 7-wave wave b rebound before the wave c takes place.

The most optimistic scenario is an unlikely but technically possible for Dow to have a 'two-day-affair' sharp correction and the worst is over. Under this scenario, after the sharp pullback in the last two days, Dow, Nasdaq and S&P500 will continue to run higher again with more record breaking highs.


For this unlikely (at this moment) ultra bullish scenario, the last two days correction is the mini wave 6 of sub-wave iii which is going to have 9 mini waves.


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