Saturday, May 9, 2020

Dow - Dead Cat Rebound about to end

Dow (24,331)

Dow moved up strongly on Friday but with the lowest volume recorded since March 23, the starting of the current up trend from 18,213 level.


Dow is likely to complete its wave B within next week.


It is also possible that Dow may take a slightly longer time to complete its wave B as shown below.




The shrinking volume so far is indicating that Dow is heading for the wave B of its super wave VIII formation. If wave C were to have the same magnitude as wave A that dropped 38.4%, super wave VIII might end somewhere near the 15,600 level.

Ray Dalio, an American billionaire hedge fund manager that founded 'Bridgewater Associates' said on Wednesday, "This is not a recession, this is a breakdown. You're seeing the same thing that happened in the 1930s".

During the '1930s great recession' Dow dropped 89%. From Dow's February record high pf 29,568, a 89% drop means it will drop to around 3,250 level!!! But personally I don't think it can happen during a super wave VIII correction. It is more likely to take place after the completion of the super wave IX when Dow goes for its grand super wave (IV) correction.


No doubt that last Friday volume is the lowest during the current up trend, but for wave b of (ii), it is perfectly alright to have the lowest volume. But if the volume continues to shrink during the wave (iii) run-up, then Dow is forming its wave B as mentioned above.

But if the coming wave (iii) run-up can turn into a dynamic surge with very powerful and unmistakable volume, then the seemingly impossible option of a mega wave (3) formation can become possible.


But it need volume, big big volume, failure which, look for another 38.4% down.

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