COVID-19 - Really a black swan?

Dow (25,409)

Dow dropped a total of 3,939 points or 13.42% from 29,348 to 25,409 within 7 trading days because of the seemingly out of control coronavirus worldwide. A whopping US$6 trillion evaporated globally within these few days, with US market alone accounted for US$4 trillion.

From the chart, if Dow can make a U-turn from this level, then the current drop could be the major wave 10, a most optimistic scenario. The next run-up will be the major wave 11.

But the World Health Organization (WHO) has just increased its risk assessment of Covid-19 to very high as the total number of reported new cases of Covid-19 outside China started to surge, especially in South Korea, Italy and Iran. The number of countries affected has gone up to 50. Under these circumstances it is very likely that Dow is going to go much lower than last Friday closing of 25,409.

A more pessimistic scenario is a 25% mega wave (2) correction to around the major wave 8 level of 21,792, another about 3,600 points to go.

And if Covid-19 outbreak finally develops into a pandemic, Dow is likely to go as low as 14,600 level for a 50% pullback. That means Dow has just completed its super wave VII and the current correction is the beginning of its super wave VIII pullback.

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What a Topsy-Turvy 48 hours

Due to the topsy-turvy political scene, the KLCI plunged right from the opening bell on Monday followed by an immediate technical rebound and then started to drop all the way to a low of 1,486 level (-45 points or 3%) before moving side way to close the day at 1490 level.

My reading for KLCI is as shown below.

My previous reading that sub-wave viii has started was wrong, with today's plunge, KLCI remains on its sub-wave vii formation. The one-day sharp drop has also punched through its lower supporting trend-line. Hopefully the wave C of the mega wave (6) can be completed within the next 10 months.

At this moment, major European markets have dropped around 4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped close to 1,000 points or more than 3%, KLCI is going to have another plunge tomorrow.

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OMG!!! 930 hectares of Forest Reserve to make way for mixed-development project !!!

The Selangor government has proposed to de-gazette 930.93 hectares out of the total 1,000 hectares of Kuala Langat North Forest Reserve (KLNFR) to make way for a mixed-development project.

For details click 'De-gazette 930.93 hectares Forest Reserve'.

one reason given by the Mentri Besar of Selangor

😱 😱 😱 😱 😱 😱 😱 😱

This is what we had voted for and chosen as our Wakil Rakyat.

KLNFR is a peat swamp forest importance for biodiversity conservation. In this forest reserve there are some rare animals like the Malayan Sun Bear, the black form of the clouded leopard, the Pygmy Flying Squirrel and the rare Langat Fighting Fish. This forest has been the home for the Temuan Orang Asli for more than 130 years. Currently there are more than 2,000 Temuan orang asli staying within the forest reserve.

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Kuala Lumpur Night Sky

Last night and tonight we have clear cloudless sky in Kuala Lumpur for those interested in watching the stars and planets at night.

At this time of the year the most prominent constellation is Orion, one of the best known of all constellations.

I have mentioned briefly in my previous article 'Orion - The Mighty Hunter' dated February 13, the major stars of the Orion constellation as well as the bright Sirius of Canis Major and Procyon of Canis Minor that formed an almost equilateral triangle with Betelguese of Orion.

Besides Orion we can also see the Heavenly Twins, Castor and Pollux of Gemini. In Greek mythology Castor and Pollux were the twin brothers of Hellen of Troy. They went with Jason and others in the ship Argo in search of the Golden Fleece. During the voyage a storm threatened to overwhelm the vessel. Orpheus, one of the heroes on board, called for help from Apollo, the Gold of Light, who caused two stars to shine on the heads of the twins. The storm ceased and the ship was saved.

A line from Rigel to Bellatrix passes through the constellation Auriga, the Chariot Driver and its bright yellow star, Capella. Others small stars of Auriga constellation are difficult to see with naked eye.

We can observe that Sirius, Procyon, Pollux, Castor and Capella form a huge sweeping curve of bright stars in the sky.

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Bravo Tommy Thomas Bravo Pakatan Harapan

Attorney General Tommy Thomas announced today to discontinue proceedings against 12 individuals on trial for alleged links to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) with immediate effect.

Tommy Thomas, "If such conduct (of having photos of slain LTTE leaders in their phones or Facebook accounts) can constitute a criminal offence, it would bring the law into disrepute".

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Coronavirus = A Black Swan event ?

On February 2, I posted the question whether Coronavirus or COVID-19 is going be a 'Black Swan' event. Looking at the development related to the virus and the drastic actions taken by the Chinese government and other countries so far, it doesn't appear to me that COVID-19 is a 'black swan' event. In fact, Dow closed its Wednesday trading with a new record high at 29,551.

Dow (29,398)

With the strong performance by the Dow, I have revised my wave count by assuming that the major wave 9 remains intact and will continue to zig-zag higher.

FBMKLCI (1,544)

KLCI is expected with its wave viii of (iii) formation.

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Orion - The Mighty Hunter

Now is the best time to watch the beautiful Orion Constellation. In Kuala Lumpur at around 11 pm if one stands facing the western horizon and looks up at around 80 degrees above the horizon, one can see the Orion Constellation with orientation as shown below.

The brightest star is Sirius of the Canis Major, the greater dog. The white Sirius formed an almost perfect equilateral triangle with Procyon of the Canis Minor and the red Betelgeuse, the shoulder of the mighty hunter. The brighter blue Rigel marks one of the hunter feet. Halfway between the Betelgeuse and Rigel are the unmistakable three little stars that formed the Orion's belt. As one turns slightly towards the north-western direction, one can see the red Aldebaran, the red eye of the Bull (Taurus).

The sky is surprisingly clear tonight and one can see the constellation clearly with naked eye.

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FBMKLCI (1,535)

KLCI has a 14 points rebound today to 1,535 level after closing at a low of 1,521 on Monday. Today's rebound can be the starting of sub-wave viii of wave (iii) of C.

Since April 2015, KLCI has been forming its mega wave (6). Hopefully it can be completed by first quarter of 2021, another 12 months or more to go, and it can then start to have its mega wave (7)'s bull-run.

For KLCI to start its mega wave (7) in 2021, the current correction for Dow has to be a major wave 10 correction of around 15% to 25,000 level and it cannot be the mega wave VIII correction of 50%.

This scenario is possible if the coronavirus outbreak can be contained within 6 to 9 months and all social and economic activity can be normalized by end of 2020.

Coronavirus - A Black Swan Event ?

Dow (28,256)

Dow dropped 603 points (-2.09%) on Friday as the coronavirus has brought China to a standstill that fanned fears the outbreak will escalate into a global economic slowdown as China is the second largest economy in the world.

From its peak of 29,348 on January 17, Dow has dropped 3.7%. If coronavirus is in fact a black swan event, the worst case scenario is the ending of Dow's mega wave VII at 29,348 level. The mega wave VIII is likely to bring Dow to as low as 15,000 level for a 49% correction.

However, if China is able to contain the coronavirus outbreak within a reasonable period, then the January 17's peak may not be the end of the mega wave VII. Then the current correction can be a lower degree major wave 10 correction of about 14.8%. For this scenario mega wave VII has more that 9 waves.

A most optimistic scenario but is also a very unlikely scenario at this moment is a wave vi of the major wave 9 correction. But a more than 800 points drop next week can straight away rule out this possibility.

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