Monday, October 21, 2019

Malaysian Ringgit - Weak for the next 6 months

USD/MYR (4.1815)

USD/MYR is at the last journey of its mini wave 3 to end its wave (ii).



From the weekly chart, in the next few weeks, USD/MYR is likely to drop to around 4.15 to complete its minor wave iv before moving up to around 4.27 to complete the minor wave v of mini wave 3 of wave (ii).


After that, hopefully by second or third quarter of 2020, USD/MYR can start its wave (iii), which is expected to go below 4.00. Ultimately the wave C of (2) is expected to end below 3.00.

If wave (i) and (ii) took more than 3 years to complete, it is reasonable to assume that wave (iii) and (iv) will take at least 4 years to complete. Wave (v) can be quite unpredictable, it can fall short or it can over-shoot. Allowing 2 years for wave (v), Ringgit is likely to peak in 2026.

Hopefully the bull for the Ringgit can start running by the second half of 2020. Am I too optimistic in view of the pessimistic political scene at this moment?

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