Go for the 'Third Force'

To vote for Mahathir is out of the question at this moment and to vote for BN+Pas is out of my way, I have no choice now but to go for the 'third force'.

If BN's candidate is a Malay and if Gerakan can capture all the previous DAP's vote plus some previous MCA vote, Gerakan has high possibility of winning.

But if BN put in a MCA member with genuine support from UMNO and partial support from Pas, it is hard to predict the winner. I am assuming some Malay voters would vote for Bersatu's candidate - a Malay.

But if BN put in a MCA member but with little support given and with majority of the UMNO and Pas members go along the racial line in voting, then Bersatu can win the election with very big margin under the Malay and Muslim agenda. If MCA lose the contest, BN will have very good reason to take the seat from MCA in the next General Election. That means BN's target is to win this same seat not now but in the GE-15 with a Malay candidates. By putting in a MCA candidate in this by-election UMNO can - firstly to pave the way for a Pas or Umno candidate in GE-15, secondly to test the power of Malay unity and thirdly to give a favor to Mahathir and at the same time to convince Mahathir the possibility of forming a new Government with UMNO, Pas, Bersatu, half-PKR, GPS plus others such as MIC and MCA to maintain a superficially multi-racial government.

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