Saturday, March 11, 2017

A bearish week for oil future.

Crude Oil WTI (US$48.49)

Crude oil (WTI) future dropped sharply by 8.7% in the last three trading days from US$53.14 to US$48.49


From the monthly chart, the 2017 March's candlestick until Friday is a long red body candlestick. Since this is the mini wave 4's candlestick, I don't expect it to have a long solid red body. I am expecting some rebound in the next two weeks. By end of March the candlestick is expected to have a small body with a long lower shadow like the one for mini wave 2.


The mini wave 5 is expected to end near US$60.00 to complete the wave (iv).

Dow (20,902)

Magnitude for mini wave 4 is almost there. Dow is expected to begin its mini wave 5 next week to complete its sub-wave iii


FBMKLCI (1,717)

If KLCI can move higher next Monday, then the sub-wave iii has nine waves as shown below.


If it moves lower on Monday and Tuesday, then it is a running a-b-c sub-wave iv. Sub-wave iii has ended, it has only five waves.


Gadang Holdings Bhd (Rm1.26)

Gadang's sub-wave vii is going to be a long one. Friday's surge is the minor wave iii of mini wave 3 of sub-wave vii. Friday's volume is impressive.


To classify Friday's surge as minor wave iii, I need the help of its 30-minute-interval chart. (Every 30 minutes one candlestick)


From the 30-minute-interval chart, it is very clear that Friday's up is minor wave iii. Next Monday Gadang is expected to move higher at the opening but should turn red by noon to complete its minor wave iv. Hopefully Gadang can close on positive territory on Monday to start its minor wave v.

Insas Bhd (Rm0.88)

Insas was very active on Friday with close to 10 millions shares changed hand. It gained 3.5 sens (+4%) to close at 88 sens.

The main question now is whether Insas has completed its wave (iii).


If Insas can continue to move higher with high volume next Monday, then it is forming the sub-wave iii of its wave (iii).


Based on its high volume on Friday, sub-wave iii of wave (iii) is a more likely scenario.


But if Insas were to move lower on Monday and continues the down-trend in the following days with shrinking volume, then it is forming a a-b-c wave (iv). Wave (iii) has ended.


This is a less likely scenario because wave b cannot have such a high volume. But based on my so many years of charting experience, sometimes the unlikely scenario can turn out to be the one. It may be rare but it can happen. Stock market is like that. Nothing can be 100% sure.


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