Sunday, January 15, 2017

Crude Oil WTI more likely to end at US$60 a barrel

Crude Oil WTI (US$52.55)

I have revised downward the possible target for its current wave (iv) rebound from US$ 72 mentioned in my previous post to US$ 60 based on semi-logarithmic scale plotting. The previous value of US$ 72 was based on linear scale plotting.


On a semi-log chart, wave (iv) to end at the top of its sub-wave iv rebound appeared to have a more  appropriate shape in term of magnitude and duration when compared to its wave (ii) rebound.

And of course as long as wave (iv) does not overlap with wave (i) it still can go to US$ 72 and is still acceptable except that the magnitude looks too big on a semi-log scale.

Dow (19,885)

Dow is likely to move side way to lower to form its wave (vi) in the next 3 months.



I expect the major wave (7) to have 9 waves.

FBMKLCI (1,672)

If sub-wave i of KLCI has only 5 waves, very likely sub-wave ii has started. I expect the correction to be less than 15 points.


Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.37)

Since reaching its peak in 2010, BJCorp has been in a long decline for close to 5 years from above Rm 1.70 to its November 2016's low of Rm 0.31. Can this 31 sen low be the final end of BJCorp's 5-year correction ?

In August 2015 at Rm 0.34 when BJCorp formed its sub-wave v of C, I thought that was the end . But it proceeded to form its sub-wave vi-vii-viii and ix. So, hard to say.


But from its 2-year chart, I noticed an OBV divergence. That means a net accumulation of stock over the last 12-month of decline. If the 31 sens low is indeed the end of the wave C of its mega wave (2), I expect BJCorp to move higher along my projected path. This can be a gold mine.


BJCorp latest quarterly earning is 3.27 sens a share with NTA at Rm 1.54.

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