Brexit - a victory of ordinary people

Marc Faber, "Britain leaving EU would not be disastrous. If Switzerland can operate in a 'single' market and outside of the EU so can Britain."

"Brexit is a victory of ordinary people, common sense and people who are prepared to take responsibility for the sake of freedom against a political and financial elite that only cares if stocks go up or down and does not care about the interests of the average British citizen."

"We can only hope that more countries will opt out of the failed EU monster. I see only a good contagion."


Click 'Marc Faber - It sends a clear message' for the article from CNBC.


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In a sea of red

A black Friday for the equity markets when investors dumped risky assets (stocks) to go into safe-heaven assets such as US treasuries, Japanese Government bonds, German bonds and gold.

Hang Seng lost almost 1,200 points or 5.8% at its low. It recouped half of its losses at the close.

According to analysts:
- Global economic growth is likely to slow down.
- Possible recessions in Britain and the EU.
- Possible slower US economic growth.
- Less demand for oil and other commodities except gold.
- More volatility in equities, currency and bonds.


Click 'Brexit's impact on Malaysians' for more.

A crucial question is whether Brexit would trigger a domino effect - more nations to exit EU.

Dow (17,400)

My reading for Dow remained the same except that it is a higher degree wave (ii) correction instead of sub-wave ii correction as mentioned previously.

FBMKLCI (1,634)

First we have 1MDB and now Brexit. KLCI dropped to a low of 1611 (-28 points) before recovering 23 points to close at 1634, dropping only 6 points.

Just to be on the safe side, I preferred to monitor KLCI along the possibility that it has already completed its long-term super wave (I) with a failure major wave 5 (as shown below) until this possibility is proven wrong.

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Where have all the flowers gone

The Company was incorporated in the Republic of Seychelles on May 18, 2009, 4 months before the initial payment to PetroSaudi. It was dissolved 5 years later on May 2, 2014.

Click 'Reuters June 22' for details.

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Well Done PAS

Sg. Besar by-election

BN : 10,572 votes
PAS : 4,507 votes
Amanah : 4,323 votes

Kuala Kangsar by-election

BN : 12,332 votes
PAS : 5,634 votes
Amanah : 4,865 votes

If Najib and his good friend Hadi Awang can continue to play the Hudud game in the next General Election and PAS can continue to ply his role of '3-conner fight' in constituencies involving either Amanah, DAP or Keadilan, BN can easily win the next GE.

With these two big wins and in view of the current good relationship with PAS, if possible, Najib will call for an early election as soon as possible before more unwanted news from the US, Singapore and Switzerland comes out.

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A downgrade could trigger a sell-off in the country's equity and bond markets, and add pressure on the ringgit.

Click 'Asian Review' for the report.

FBMKLCI (1,614)

KLCI dropped 13 points today to close at 1,614 level.

Since the 1,620 level is broken, I have to forget about the 15 to 20 points mini wave 1-2 rebound that I have mentioned previously. Sub-wave iii may take the form of the sub wave i as shown above.

Sub-wave i dropped about 110 points from 1,730 to 1,620. If sub-wave iii has the same magnitude as sub-wave i, it is possible that sub-wave iii can drop to 1,550 level.

Be careful.

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FBMKLCI - Worst case scenario

FBMKLCI ( 1,627)

I am expecting a 15 points mini-wave 2 rebound. If the rebound failed to move above 1,640 and if KLCI started to break the 1620 and 1600 levels, be very very careful, very likely KLCI is going to drop very fast.

 

This worst case scenario is where the major wave 5 is a failure wave and the mega wave (II) has started.

Be careful.

Click 'Latest Development' for the report.

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OK not OK

This is OK, no big issue because as explained below

But when one reminded people what he has said

It is not OK, it is a big issue, it must be investigated.

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Dow OK, Crude Oil OK, KLCI not OK.

Dow moved above 18,000 and Crude Oil (WTI) closed higher than US$ 50.00 a barrel.

As I have mentioned previously, by mid 2017 I expect Dow to be above 20,000 in its major wave (7) movement.

And Crude Oil (WTI) to reach US$ 80.00 in its major wave 4 rebound.

Will KLCI move in tandem with Dow and Crude Oil price and has its major wave 5 run-up until mid 2017 ?

I am not very sure. Frankly speaking, at this moment I am monitoring for a possible 'failure major wave 5' as shown below.

Why? 1MDB loh. Weak Ringgit loh. Net out-flow of foreign investment loh. What else ?

When you have news like this:

and headline like this:

Click 'WSJ' to read.

I just wonder whether KLCI can have its major wave 5 run-up until mid-2017.

If KLCI can continue to move higher, that is very good.

But if today's 7.34 points drop marked the end of sub-wave ii,

and if KLCI continues to move lower from here and goes below 1620 and 1600 levels, be careful, be very careful, both major wave 5 and mega wave (5) might have ended.

The next down can be the dynamic wave (iii) of super wave (II).



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FBMKLCI (1,636) - I am still uncomfortable

Is the major wave 5 that I have been talking about still there ? 

KLCI has been moving side-way, bouncing within 1,620 and 1,640 levels for the last 3 weeks. Is that the mini-wave 1-2 ? If KLCI can move above 1,640 level, very likely, mini-wave 3 of b is on the way but it may not last for very long. After the completion of b the next down trend will be the c wave.

If we are lucky, this wave c can be the end of sub-wave ii of wave (iii) of the major wave 5. The next up will be the iii of (iii) of 5. Then we will not need to worry about a plunge until after mid 2017.

But if we are unlucky, and the major wave 5 has already been ended with a failure as shown below.

Then the coming rebound will complete the sub-wave ii of wave (iii), and the next drop is going to be the sub-wave iii of (iii).

Be very careful, especially when KLCI drops below 1,620 and proceeds to go below 1,600. Make sure to preserve your capital.

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My favourite song