Dow - Nothing to worry

Dow (16,553)

If my wave count is correct, Dow has not reach its crucial possible turning point at end of wave (xiii) of its major wave (5) of mega wave 1.

The current correction is only the sub-wave iv of its wave (xi). We still have sub-wave v, wave (xii) and wave (xiii) in front. The only question now is whether sub-wave iv has ended.

I expect Dow to complete the crucial wave (xiii) before end of 2015. Watch out for that. If that also marked the end of major wave (5) and mega wave 1, under the worst case scenario, the mega wave 2 pullback can go all the way to March 2009's low of 6547 for a 100% retracement.

I am talking about mega wave 1 and 2 of super wave VII.

Bursa Malaysia FBMKLCI (1,839)

FBMKLCI  dropped in tandem with Dow. It dropped 28 point (-1.5%) last Friday. From the long term chart, FBMKLCI is forming it major wave 3 currently.

So far FBMKLCI has completed wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) and sub-wave i, ii and iii. Sub-wave iv in progress.

I expect sub-wave iv to reach a possible low of 1,800 before the next sub-wave v starts to run.

Global Oriental Bhd (Rm 1.04)

Only yesterday, while going through my older posts, I discovered that I have over looked some comments/messages. James asked about GOB in April when GOB was forming the wave (i) of its major wave 3.

After touching a high of Rm 1.17 in April, GOB has been moving side way to form its wave (ii). It is forming its wave c of wave (ii) at this moment. GOB is likely to reach 95 sens to complete its wave (ii) before starting its dynamic wave (iii) of 3 of (3).

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.20)

Mr. Phuah has made some comments on the Rm 50 million unsecured redeemable convertible notes (RCN)

Uuder PWorth 'Multiple Proposals', one of the proposal is to issue Rm 50 million of RCN comprising 5 equal tranches of Rm 10 million each. Each tranche is divided into many sub-tranches that can be issued from time to time.

The conversion price for RCN into PWorth shares is depended on when each tranche subscription agreement is signed.

The conversion price is either equal to 130% of the 'volume weighted average price' for 45 business days prior to the date signing the RCN subscription agreement, or equal to 80% of the 'average price of 3 consecutive days' within that 45 days.

I think Tranche 1 (Rm 10 million) RCN subscription agreement was signed on 5th March. On 28 Feb. PWorth closed at 18 sens and on 3 and 4 of March, the closing price was 17.5 sens. So 80% of 3 days average is 14.1 sens.

Tranche 2 RCN subscription agreement must have been signed after PWorth set its record low of 16 sens on 6th, 9th and 10th of June (Or they purposely pushed the priced to 16 sens for 3 days, exactly 3 days). So 80% of 3 days average price of 16 sens is 12.8 sens.

The 71 million shares under tranche 1 and 15.6 million shares from part of tranche 2 must have been sold above 20 sens and have been absorbed (Who are the big buyers ?). Volume traded from 23rd June to 8th August totaled 382 million (there must be a lot of day traders).

There are still 62.5 million share converted at 12.8 sens not yet listed.

When are they going to sign and issue tranche 3, 4 and 5 and at what conversion price, I don't know. These are big fishes games. Are they going to push the price down to 16 sens again (wave (ii) 100% retracement) and sign the agreement or are they going to sign at 20 sens conversion and push the price to 30 sens to unload ? I also don't know. But I believe in chart reading and firmly believe (have to lah) whatever they are doing and are going to do will be reflected in the chart. So I go by the chart. 

And of course I can be wrong.


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