No sign so far for a Euphoric run.

As long as the volume doesn't pick up, I will assume that Dow is forming a diagonal wave (v) and it can end pretty soon. That also mark the end of major wave (5).

Then the next question is whether the Mega wave 1 has 5 or 9 major wave.

(a) Mega wave 1 has 9 major waves.

Dow will have a 12% to 15% major wave (6) correction as shown below.

This will tie in quite well with Paul Schatz, President of Heritage Capital, has in mind. He is bullish but expecting a near term pullback.

"I do think we are building towards a peak that will mark a 10% to 20% decline." He think a new market top could be set in the coming August or September.

"If we do have a decline, I think it will bottom in October, and possibly it will lead to another rally ......."

Click 'Heading for a 1987-style crash ?' for the report by Matt Nesto.

(b) Mega wave 1 has only 5 major waves.

Under this scenario, the end of the diagonal wave (v) also mark the end of the mega wave 1.

A mega wave 2 correction can be very damaging. Minimum target is the bottom of major wave (4) at 10655 level, a 33% pullback. The worst case scenario is a 100% retracement to March 2009's low of 6547 level - the bubble has burst.

As I have mentioned before, I don't expect the asset bubble to burst without going through a dynamic, high volume, speculative euphoric run. If Dow does form a diagonal wave (v) to end the major wave (5), I expect the next correction to be a major wave (6) pullback with magnitude not exceeding 15%.

Summer is the best time to see sunflowers. Whenever I see sunflower, I think of Van Gogh and his Sunflowers.

 And then his starry starry night

 

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