Promises Kept

30th November, 2012

A day Kuantan started to cry

 

 To Lynas

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Don't get mad

Very often I hear this and it is getting louder with time and the frequency is getting higher and higher.

Why ?

Click ' Do you want the devil you know ? ' from Kee Thuan Chye for his view.

 The Australians love this. 

They make tons of money from their natural resources and keep the toxic and radioactive waste 4000km away from Australia.That is beautiful. Life cannot be much better

 The happy and healthy Australian


 

Poor Malaysian

Lynas loves this - Promises Kept

Rare earth concentrate will arrive safely and the Lynas plant can start its operation anytime.

“They have to process the waste into products and then send it out of Malaysia. Lynas has already shown it is able to do that,”

Let's see.

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Under the cover of darkness

Under the cover of darkness,

102 rare earth concentrate arrived 

at the Lynas plant near Kuantan.

22nd November 2012, it is

the starting of prosperity to Lynas

It is the beginning of 

a potential nightmare to the people of Kuantan

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Rare Earth Concentrate has Arrived !!!!

On 8th November, the Kuantan High Court has lifted the interim suspension of the Temporary Operating Licence (TOL) for Lynas, within 14 days, 102 containers of rare earth concentrate has arrived at Kuantan port at 11pm last night under heavy police escort. The 4000km journey from Australia to Kuantan is supposed to take a month, Lynas must be very confident of the court judgement to have its shipment started 16 days before the judge has lifted the suspension. Malaysia Boleh ! Lynas Boleh !!

The Government continued to claim that the everything is safe despite the fact that the Australian refused to have the plant in the Australian desert and take the trouble to send the concentrate 4000km at high cost and with high risk along the way to Malaysia for treatment. Malaysia really Boleh.

This is how big the Australian Continent 

Click 'Malaysians must know' for more information.

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Lynas to start production in December 2012

Lynas executive chairman Nicholas Curtis told the company’s annual general meeting in Sydney on Tuesday (20/11/2012) that its rare earth processing plant in Gebeng, Kuantan is expected to start production next month. The plant is expected to reach full capacity production by the second half of 2013.

 Toxic discharge from rare earth plant in China

The whole world needs rare earth but no government that care for the people will allow the import of rare earth ore into the country to be processed.

Baotou rare earth plant in China

China has 23% of the world rare earth reserve but is supplying more than 90% of refined rare earth on the global market. Why? It is because the waste produced is very toxic and is radioactive. Countries with rare earth reserves are reluctant to mine and to process rare earth despite of the high price and tight supply of rare earth products in the global market. To refine rare earth ore for another country is definitely a big 'NO' except Malaysia, a laughing stock to the world by now, but the Japanese (the main rare earth user) and the Australian really love the Malaysian Government.

Save Malaysia Stop Lynas (SMSL) Chairman Tan Bun Teet

Knowing very well it is a losing battle right from the beginning but these true Malaysian continue to block the project with all possible means despite of all the threats and harassment. These are the one that really care for you and me, our country, our future and our next generation, and next, and next .......

Himpunan Hijau Chairman Wong Tack

They deserve our respect of the highest level and we should give them our supports in anyway we can. 

The anti Lynas walk from Kuantan to Kuala Lumpur has reached its 8th-day. The participants are scheduled to reach Bukit Tinggi today.

They will be at Dataran Merdeka on 25th November and at the Parliament on 26th November.
Big anti Lynas crowd is expected to gather there. Want to join in ? See you there.



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Dutaland - One possible wave count

One possible wave count for Dutaland is as shown below

Wave (I)-(II), 1-2 formation. If the lower trend line is the support, 51 sen can be a possible ending point for wave 2, unless its is an expanding a-b-c formation.

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Dow - Possibility 1 can be eliminated

Dow dropped 185 points (1.45%) to close at 12570 level on Wednesday. With that, Dow has gone below its short-term lower resistance line (red line by joining point (ii) and (iv)). It confirmed that major wave (5) has only 5 waves. Thus, possibility 1 can be eliminated.

Next is possibility 2 where the mega wave 1 may have 9 major waves as shown below.

Major wave (6) may end around 12,000 level, staying on top of the longer term resistance line (green line by joining (2) and (4)).

This possibility 2 can only be eliminated if Dow drops below 12,000, by then we will left with only possibility 3 where mega wave 1 has ended and mega wave 2 has started.

The minimum target for mega wave 2 is the 10655 level, the low of major wave (4). The maximum pullback is the scenario of a 100% retracement to the starting point of mega wave 1, the 6547 level.

At this moment I am going to focus on possibility 2 and the 10655 support level until such time when Dow goes below the 10655 level and possibility 2 is eliminated.




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Dow - Only a 20% correction ?

Marc Faber is expecting a 20% correction.

“I don’t think markets are going down because of Greece, I don’t think markets are going down because of the fiscal cliff — because there won’t be a ‘fiscal cliff.’ The market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint, the global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the reason why stocks, from the highs of September of 1,470 on the S&P, will drop at least 20%, in my view.”

Click 'Prepare for a painful market meltdown' for his interview with CNBC.

At this moment Marc Faber is calling for a 20% correction. If Dow does fall in tandem with S&P, it will drop to around 10,900 level. He didn't say what will be the direction of the market after that. Whether the 20% drop is the overall correction or whether the market will take a breather before the next 20% down.

I personally feel that Marc Faber is talking about the possibility No. 3 mentioned in my previous article.

Under this scenario, a most optimistic outcome for mega wave 2, the correction will end at 10655 level, the low of major wave (4), a strong support level. See the following chart.

It would be interesting to see what will be his assessment on the world economy after the 20% drop has taken place, and what will be his opinion on the direction of the S&P. 

To me, the 10655 level is very crucial. Once the Dow dropped below the 10655 level, I will monitor for a possible 100% retracement for mega wave 2 to reach the 6547 level until such time that it can be ruled out.



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Dow - Where are we ?

My belief - When Dow plunged, the whole world plunged.

My view - Dow should not be at its current level. It is being supported and put at its current level by the wealthy and powerful elites.

My hope - Technical analysis remains relevant.

My interpretations :

Possibility 1 : 
If major wave (5) has 9 waves, wave (i) to wave (ix) as shown below. Wave (vi) is almost completed. Dow is able to stay above the short-term lower resistance line. Next run-up is wave (vii).

Possibility 2 :
Dow drops below its short-term resistance line but is able to stay above its longer term lower resistance line as shown below. Mega wave 1 has 9 waves. Dow is forming its major wave (6). Next run-up is major wave (7).

 

Possibility 3 :

Dow drops below its longer term resistance line, around 11800 level - get ready to run. When Dow drops below the major wave (4)'s low of 10,655 as shown below - run for your life, Dow has completed its mega wave 1. Mega wave 2 can be very damaging with a possible low of 6547 for a 100% retracement.

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Dow - Needs further confirmation

Dow dropped 313 points (3.26%) on Wednesday to close below 13,000 level.

As I have mentioned before, the moment Dow dropped below the 13,000 level, probability is high that the major wave 1 as shown is completed. I will be looking for further confirmation for this wave count.

However, Dow has gone below the 13,000 level by a mere 68 points or 0.5% as shown. Quite often, prices tend to fall short or overshoot, as such the following wave count cannot be ruled out yet.

Especially if Dow can have a strong rebound in the next few days. Just have to wait for further confirmation.

News on Lynas Rare Earth Plant near Kuantan

The Kuantan High Court has lifted the suspension of the Lynas Temporary Operating Licence (TOL) today, paving the way for Lynas to start its operation when the public is not even aware of any proposal from Lynas on the toxic and radioactive waste disposal.

The only way to stop this project is to let the opposition win the State of Pahang in the coming General Election.
 

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The Song of 劉文正 (Steven Liu)

Back in the 70's and 80's these lovely songs from Steven Liu were the one that accompanied me when I was alone doing my works or when I was doing nothing.

劉文正 - 蘭花草.鄉間的小路.外婆的澎湖灣

蘭花草

我從山中來　帶著蘭花草
種在小園中　希望花開早
一日看三回　看得花時過
蘭花卻依然　苞也無一個

轉眼秋天到　移蘭入暖房
朝朝頻顧惜　夜夜不相忘
期待春花開　能將宿願償
滿庭花簇簇　添得許多香

鄉間的小路

走在鄉間的小路上            
暮歸的老牛是我同伴
藍天配朵夕陽在胸膛
繽紛的雲彩是晚霞的衣裳

荷把鋤頭在肩上                         
牧童的歌聲在蕩漾
喔喔喔喔他們唱
還有一支短笛隱約在吹響

笑意寫在臉上                         
哼一曲鄉居小唱
任思緒在晚風中飛揚
多少落寞惆悵
都隨晚風飄散
遺忘在鄉間的小路上 

走在鄉間的小路上
暮歸的老牛是我同伴

藍天配朵夕陽在胸膛
繽紛的雲彩是晚霞的衣裳

外婆的澎湖灣

晚風輕拂澎湖灣　白浪逐沙灘　沒有椰林綴斜陽　只是一片海藍藍
坐在門前的矮牆上　一遍遍懷想　也是黃昏的沙灘上　有著腳印兩對半

那是外婆柱著杖　將我手輕輕挽　踩著薄暮　走向餘暉　暖暖的澎湖灣
一個腳印是笑語一串　消磨許多時光　直到夜色吞沒我倆在回家的路上

澎湖灣　澎湖灣　外婆的澎湖灣　有我許多的童年幻想
陽光　沙灘　海浪　仙人掌　還有一位老船長

 

劉文正 - 秋蟬 (Autumn Cicada)

秋蟬

聽我把春水叫寒　看我把綠葉催黃
誰道秋下一心愁　煙波林野意幽幽

花落紅　花落紅　紅了楓　紅了楓      
展翅任翔雙羽燕　我這薄衣過得殘冬

總歸是秋天　總歸是秋天
春走了　夏也去　秋意濃
秋去冬來美景不再
莫教好春逝匆匆　
莫教好春逝匆匆 


Time seems to fly, gone the 70's, 80's, 90's ........ and I have finally retired, after passing all my exams, graduated and after working for 37 years, an old man now, but these songs are as young, as beautiful and as lovely as before. 


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Bonfire Night London

London's firework displays on 5th November, Bonfire Night or Guy Fawkes' Night

V for Vendetta :

Remember, remember
The Fifth of November
The gunpowder treason and plot
I know of no reason why the gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot. 

On that night in 1605, Guy Fawkes and co-conspirators attempted, unsuccessfully, to blow up Parliament in response to the tyranny of their Government under King James 1. Fawkes and all that were caught were hanged.
 

 For story click 'The Gunpowder Plot'.

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Zermatt and Matterhorn

The Matterhorn, at elevation 4,478m is one of the deadliest peaks in the Alps. From 1865, when it was first climbed, to 1995, there were 500 climbers fell to their deaths.

The Matterhorn is located at the border between Switzerland and Italy. To see this Alpine peak, one can take a train from Geneva or Basel to Zermatt, a beautiful mountaineering and  ski resort at the foothill of the Matterhorn.

The train to Zermatt (elevation 1,620m)

Main Street of Zermatt

The Matter Vispa River

The Catholic Church of Zermatt.

To know more about Zermatt, click "elysiancollection".

Tourist can travel to Klein Matterhorn (Little Matterhorn) (elevation 3,883m) by taking a cable car that has a capacity for about eight person. It covers only first two stations of the journey.

Courtesy of elysiancollection.com

The last and the highest station is served by a high capacity cable car, the Klein Matterhorn Lift. It is the highest cable car in the world. It soars 1,000 feet above vast glaciers to the ski resort at Klein Matterhorn at elevation 3,883m.

Ski Slopes

Glaciers

Glacier grotto, a tunnel through the glacier at Klein Matterhorn

Ice crystals on the ceiling of the glacier tunnel

Ice sculptures

The highest point, the observation platform at 3,883m

One reminder:

Don't forget to wake up early in the morning to take a photo of the golden peak, illuminated by the early morning sun.