Saturday, May 12, 2012

Lower and lower except the US markets


Dow ended the week at 12,820 which is about 9.5% below its 2007 historical high of 14,164 and 96% above its 2009 low of 6,547. This is despite of the economy slow down in China and the serious debt problems, austerity measures and recession in Europe, thanks to the currency printing policy of Federal Reserve.


Nasdaq at 2933 is about 2.5% above its 2007's high of 2859 and it is 131% above its 2009's low of 1,268. Is US economy really doing that well?


All other major world markets are less optimistic.


The Australian AORD is unable to break new ground since April 2010. With the second high in April 2011, it proceeded to form a 'double top' reversal pattern. It has been hovering around its neckline in the last 6 months. Will it plunge from this level triggered by events from Europe?

Asian Markets


Japanese Nikkei 225 has been moving in a down trend channel since its April 2010 high of 11,286. The index is currently 51% below its 2007's high and 25% above its 2009's low



Since July 2009, Chinese Shanghai SSE Composite continues to move lower and lower and is currently at 59% below its 2007 historical high. China's April Industrial Production rose at the slowest pace since 2009. Its April Fiscal Revenue grew at just 6.9% down sharply from its March 18.7%


Hong Kong's Hang Seng index performed much better than the Shanghai SSE. Its down trend only started in November 2010 and has been staying within the down trend channel in the last 17 months.


Singapore STI started its down trend in January 2011. the index has been holding up rather well. The index is only 25% below its 2007's historical high.

European Markets


German DAX has a 32% correction in August/September 2011 due to the European debt crisis. It managed to pull itself up to within 19% of its 2007's high.


The new French President may want to avoid austerity measures but can France continues to spend money that it does not have and risks the possibility of ended up likes Greece. The CAC40 index has a classical 'double top' pattern. The index moved back to touch its neckline in March 2012 and has started to move downwards since then.


Same as the German DAX London FTSE 100 remains strong and is within 18% of its October 2007's high.


Greek Athen Index continues to set new low in the last few days. It has dropped about 88% from its 2007's high of 5334. It closed the week at 613.96, a new low. It is possible that Greece may choose to leave Euro and to print huge amounts of their own currency.

Except the US markets where the Government has the luxury of printing money out of thin air, the rest of the major markets are likely to continue moving lower and lower.




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