Silver after its closing peak on April 29 at $48.584/oz, it has dropped about 28% over 10 trading days to $35.011/oz. Based on wave count, there should be one more surge. it may go for a double tops formation. Not the end yet for silver.
Gold price has also retreated in the last 10 days but it dropped only 4%. I am expecting the 4% pullback to develop into a 16% pullback to around $1300/oz.
Copper price has started to go south in February and it has retreated from $4.64/lb peak to $3.98/lb so far for a 14% drop. The current pullback looked like a wave 4 correction, there should be one more surge.
The charts for crude oil and CRB looked rather similar to that of the Dow since 2008. If Dow is somewhere near the end of wave B, I would like to assume that crude oil and CRB are both at the tail end of wave B.
BDI chart says only one thing, the run up in commodity prices since the middle of 2010 were not due to actual increase in demand.
If Dow is going for double dips, corn and soybeans prices might not go much higher.
What others have to say about the trend for commodity prices?UBS commodity analyst Tom Price said 2014 loomed as the ''tipping point'' for commodities, when new mining projects would come into operation. That means the prices of precious metals will continue to go higher until until 2014 or at least the prices will not collapse until 2014.
The Royal Bank of Scotland has predicted commodity prices will hit their peak in 2013. So, the commodity prices will continue to move higher until 2013.
Another factor that affects the commodity prices is the strength of US dollars, which I think is heading south at this moment. However if the Greek's debt structure collapsed or the Al-Qaida started their revenge or the political situation in Northern Africa and the Middle-East turned really ugly and out of control, the US dollars may reverse it direction.
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