Saturday, April 23, 2011

Metal prices reaching for the ceiling


Gold rose to a new all-time high of $1512.50, before closing at $1507.00 on Friday



Silver moved up again Friday to $46.68 in light holiday trading. Another fresh 31-year high. It put on 350% since 2008's low. It looked like a bubble to me.




Copper has also put on 200% since its 2008's Low




It appeared that more investors are moving out of US dollar and rushing into precious metals. A sign of losing confidence in US dollar and concerns over global inflation and political uncertainty.



US dollar index has moved up twice since its early 2008 bottom of around 72. The first surge in 2008 was the old believe that in time of crisis go for US dollar. The second surge was due to the European debt crisis and the weakening of Euro and Pound. But since mid 2010, the world started to look at US dollar from a different perspective. Debts problem has not improved, Dow has been going up, political situation in Africa and Middle East has not improved but US dollar continues to slide helped by the money printing of Federal Reserve.





Crude oil and Corn are expected to move higher as the dollar slides




Soybean and wheat that are lagging behind the rest are expected to move higher at a faster rate.




Looking at all the above charts, especially that of CRB and the metals, I don't really feel comfortable about the markets.



Rare Earth Refinery at Gebang Kuantan


1) Lynas is expecting an operating license from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board before September 2011.
2) The plant is 25km away from densely populated Kuantan
3) Thorium in the radioactive waste has a half-life of 14.05 billion years
4) Lynas will be getting 12 years tax exemption for its operation. (that produces radioactive waste)
5) The plant will creat only 350 jobs.
6) 2 MCA members visited Lynas mining site in Australia and have supported Lynas application.
7) Lynas has obtained approval for the land purchase and the building construction except the operation license.
8) No country including Australia wants this type of industry except Malaysia.
9) Less tourist will go to Kuantan and all the beach resorts from Kuantan to Gebang including Club Med.
10) Other owners of existing plants and factories may relocate their premises to somewhere else.


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