Libyan Turmoil

Benchmark crude for March delivery was up $6.27 a barrel, or 7.3%, at $92.47 a barrel.

Nikkei, Hang Seng and Singapore STI at the close.

Current English, German and French Bourses

US Market at the opening bell

Today can be a bad day for stocks but I don't think the world bourses will plunge straight down from here, especially the US market. Until last Friday, Dow has not shown any weakness, there is no sign of market turning south and there is no reversal pattern.

If we recall the market behaviour after the October 2007's peak as shown above, there is no panic selling in the first few weeks after the market peak. The first plunge was in December 2007 after the formation of a small 'Head and Shoulders' reversal pattern, but that was followed by a 1,000 points rebound in early 2008. In fact for Bursa Malaysia the market peak was set in January 2008, three months after Dow has recorded its peak.



But this time around, it appeared to me that the Hang Seng and Singapore STI, as shown above have started to turn south ahead of the US markets. It gave me the feeling that the US market is being supported to enable the big fish to pull out from the Asian market gradually. Assuming the evacuation has not been completed yet, I don't expect an all out sell down, not at this moment.

However as I have mentioned in my previous post, I am expecting the the current run for Dow to end very soon possibly by first week of March if there isno further extension to wave (iii) of major wave B.


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