Dow - The big picture.

Going through my previous wave count again, I still think that Dow is either in its super wave (IV) as shown above, that will last for 10 years easily.


If October 2007's peak is the end of super wave (III), the 5 waves from October 2007 to March 2009 has to be the major wave 1. The rebound since March 2009 has to be major wave 2 that can have only 3 waves, wave (i), (ii) & (iii). Dow is at the sub-wave 5 of wave (iii).



The second possibility for Dow is a major wave 6 as shown above that can end in 2012.



Under this scenario, the 5 wave from October 2007 to March 2009 has to be major wave A. The rebound since March 2009 must be major wave B that can have only 3 waves. Dow is at the sub-wave 5 of wave (iii).

Let's have a closer look at this sub-wave 5 that refused to end at its mini wave v at the end of January 2011, it went into extension to form its mini waves vi and vii. This mini wave vii is expected to be completed by next week. If mini wave viii and ix can be completed by end of February or first week of March, that can be the end of sub-wave 5 of wave (iii), if wave (iii) has only 5 waves, major wave B will end at this level.


However if wave (iii) has 9 waves instead of 5 waves, its sub-wave 6, 7, 8 and 9 will push the completion of major wave B to April or May as shown below.


To be cautious, it is better to assume that wave (iii) will have only 5 waves and major wave B is likely to end very soon, latest by first week of March. Don't be caught by a failure sub-wave 5.