Dow - Which option is most likely ?

In my yesterday post, I have mentioned 3 possible wave counts for Dow. Which one is most likely? At this stage I can leave out the unlikely wave (I)-(II)-(III) third option where Dow will go all the way down to March 2009's low.

For option 1 and 2 as shown below



Option 1 - Dow at the ending part of wave (I), to be followed by the wave (II) pull back.



Option 2 - Dow has completed wave (I) and (II) and is in the initial stage of wave (III)

The volumes of Dow and Nasdaq tell me that option 1 is the most likely outcome. Volumes have been shrinking since early may. Volume divergences usually signal the ending of a major wave. Option 2 is less likely because usually wave (III) is more dynamic than wave (I) and it should have a higher volume than (I).