Monday, May 4, 2009

Has Dow Punched Through The Ceiling?

I have to used S&P 500 chart for discussion because I usually obtained my base chart from Yahoo (with great appreciation). At this moment the last candlestick (4 May's candlestick) for Dow was plotted wrongly by Yahoo. The chart for S&P 500 all the while is quite similar to Dow's chart. However, based on my hand-plot chart, the last candlestick for Dow has its top higher than the upper trend line whereas that of S&P 500 has just touched the upper trend line.

There are two possibilities here, possibility 1 is the same as what I have shown in my previous post except wave 5 is going for nine sub-waves instead of 5 sub-waves. Monday's candlestick formed the sub-wave vii as shown below. Based on this possibility, Tuesday's candlestick has to be either a "doji", a "shooting star" or a red candle down to form sub-wave viii to be followed by another up candlestick (green) to complete wave 5 and the major wave (I). It will drag on for another 3 to 4 days. Major wave (II) correction will easily take 15 to 20 days until all technical indicators have moved to the base again.



However if US market will to surge and to put on another 200 points with another big green candlestick similar to the Monday's candlestick, then the market is already in the major wave (III) as shown below, at sub-wave vii of wave 1 of major wave (III). All technical indicators will have to fluctuate horizontally moving at the upper ceiling for at least another month

In stock market anything can happen, you can never always beat the market.

No comments:

Post a Comment