Thursday, April 16, 2009

Is Dow Running Away ?

Dow instead of confirming whether the market is heading for option 1 or option 2 as mentioned in my previous post, its two latest positive candlesticks bring back my previous 'Diagonal wave 5' option that I have just written off not so many days ago. It really illustrated the saying that anything can happen. But stock market has to be that way otherwise the market cannot exist.


Option 1 as shown above, still hold. Dow at this stage is not running away yet, however if its next two candlesticks continue to run up with another 200 poins, then it is running away. In view of the overbought situation, I would say "It is possible but unlikely". Have to wait for another 1 or 2 days to confirm.

Option 2 is as shown above, Dow is very well behaved until Thurseday closing, it has formed the b sub-wave. If in the next few days Dow moves lower in an orderly manner (not plunge down), it is in sub-wave c.

The chart shown above is very pessimistic, it is option 3 (Diagonal wave 5). The last two candlesticks of Dow have given the chart a new twist. As shown above, it formed a i-ii-iii-iv-v diagonal wave 3. From the March low of 6547, Dow has formed 3 waves with a weak diagonal third wave. 3 waves formation is always a corrective wave. If next two days Dow moves down sharply, it is very very likely that it is heading for the March low of 6547.



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