Thursday, November 27, 2008

Another view on Dow


This chart from asiachart.com with an opinion of a double top possibility. For double top to form it will have to break through 7500 with high volume, with or without a technical rebound to touch 7500 for one last time, the first target is 4000 in semilog scale. I have quite a different view on the double top proposal. The first top mentioned Dow was at 11,908 on 14 January 2000 and the second was at 14,279 on 11 Oct 2007. The difference in Dow is 2371 points, the difference is almost 20%. My view is that the difference is too big for a double top classification. Go back to my ABCDE formation, in the last four sessions, Dow has put on 1174 points for a 15.5% rebound, very encouraging indeed. It is very crucial now as it approches 8750, the upper level of the downward channel. A breakout is a further confirmation that the 7392 intra day low on 21 Nov is the end of wave A. What if it fails to break out of the downward channel? Well we will have to wait a little bit longer for Wave A to complete, because the so call end of A at 7392 will become a subwave 1 of 5, the rebound so far is subwave 2 of 5. It is what I call a diagonal 5 formation with 3 of 5 at 7300, 4 of 5 at 8100 and 5 of 5 most probably at 7000 for end of Wave A, easily another 10 to 15 days from now. I hope I don't have to go through all these. If it does happen, a possitive view is, God is so kind, he give you another chance to pick up your favarite stock at a cheaper level.

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