Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.26)

Pworth gained 2 sens today to form its mini wave 5 that I have been looking for to confirm the formation of wave (v).

Sub-wave ii correction will provide a good entry point at around 23 sens level. I expect wave (v) to reach around 34 or 35 sens level. But if wave (v) can go above 40 sens, then it may proceed to form wave (vi), (vii), (viii) and (ix). Major wave 1-2 might not take place so soon.

.

Taybeh's Oktoberfest

Taybeh (Arabic: الطيبة‎‎), a small Christian village in the West Bank with a population of around 1,450.

Taybeh is the home of Taybeh Brewery that produces a variety of beers (Golden, Light, Amber, Dark, and White) and wines (Merlot, Cabernet, Sauvignon and Syrah).

The brewery sells 6 million litres a year, and exports its product to Europe and Japan.

Since 2005, Taybeh has its Oktoberfest celebration every year, aiming at promoting local Palestinian products and attracting tourism. The celebration offers beer competitions, cultural, traditional and musical performances and other attractions. For this year Taybeh has just held its Oktoberfest a few days ago on 16 & 17 September.

Since 2015, Taybeh started to have its annual vinfest too. On February this year Taybeh held its Vinfest 2017.

Any problem ? No problem. Yumyumyumyumsinnnnnng.

A Tale of Two Cities

I guess that is why the exchange rate of our ringgit to Singapore dollar dropped from 1 ringgit to 1 Singapore dollar in the 1970's to the current 3.1 ringgit to 1 Singapore dollar.

.

Weekly Update

Crude Oil (WTI) (US$49.83)

Crude oil is on its wave (ii) of C rebound. I expect the price to drop sharply in October to start its wave (iii).

Dow (22,268)

Dow continues with its mini wave 7 formation.

USD/MYR (Rm4.19 to 1US$)

In my previous wave count for USD/MYR, I am assuming USD/MYR is forming the wave c of its major wave 2 of B. Under this scenario, Ringgit is expected to weaken again to 4.6 or 4.7 level next year to complete the wave B rebound before strengthening.

But there is a possibility that Ringgit might have seen its worst. Its last low at 4.49 in January 2017 could be the wave (vii) of B.

It was during the time when Dr. Mahathir was PM that Ringgit was at its strongest at 2.45 to 1USD.

During A. Badawi time from 2003 to 2009, the ringgit was unpegged from its Rm3.8 to 1USD. The ringgit improved to 3.13 by April 2008 but it dropped to a low of 3.7 in January 2009. During Najib's 1st term as the PM, the ringgit was pretty stable and strong. It was able to stay around 3.1 from April 2011 to May 2013 (26 months). After that whether it was due to 1MDB or other reasons, ringgit kept on dropping until its low of 4.48 by September 2015.

If wave B has been completed, theoretically wave C should bring the ringgit back to at least 2.45 to 1USD as what it was during the time when Dr. Mahathir was the PM. Please don't interpret what I have said to mean the opposition coalition HARAPAN is going to knock out BN.

FBMKLCI (1,786)

A possible wave count for KLCI - wave (ii) of C has just been completed. I am still thinking of the 15% wave C.

From the 20-year chart, one can see, this wave C of (6) won't be over so soon. Hopefully the duration can be shortened by a stronger ringgit.

.

Dow jumped 259 points (+1.19%)

Dow opened with a gap on Monday and closed near its high at 22,057 gaining 259 points. With this candlestick, Dow has cut short its correction and has a lower degree mini wave 6 correction instead of a higher degree sub-wave vi correction that I mentioned two days ago.

Now I have to wait for the completion of mini wave 7, 8 and 9 to see whether the major wave 7 is going to end there.

.

Technical Analysis by 'Investing.com'

Investing.com is a global financial portal and internet brand composed of 30 editions in 22 languages and mobile apps for Android and iOS that provide news, analysis, streaming quotes and charts, technical data and financial tools about the global financial markets.

From it website we can obtain the technical analysis for many of the stocks listed in Bursa Malaysia.

Its technical analysis covers  12 moving averages :

And 12 technical indicators:

Analysis is carried out for 5-minute interval, 15-minute interval, hourly, daily and monthly charts.

Shown below are the summary of the technical analysis for some of the stocks.

From the above technical summary, Insas, Kuchai and Priceworth looked bullish but Mulpha looked bearish.

.

Weekly Update

Dow (21,797)

The most likely wave count for Dow is a sub-wave vi formation.

FBMKLCI (1,779)

The candlesticks in the last four days really surprised me. Instead of moving down to form the mini wave 4 and 5 the KLCI moved higher.

Hopefully the next few candlesticks can help me to firm up my wave count.

However, if we look at the chart for the Industrial Index as shown below, it is rather obvious that the down-trend remained intact.

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.245)

After reaching a low of 7.5 sens in October 2016, Pworth staged a strong rebound after the company has proposed a massive corporate exercise that is expected to give a major boost to its earning.

Click 'Priceworth-Rm100 million net profit' for an article appeared  in The Edge Financial Daily.

Technically if Pworth can move above the 29 sens level to form 5 advancing waves, then the up-trend still has a long way to go. But must watch out for the major wave 2 correction.

However if it is unable to break the 29 sens level, then technically it has a 3-wave rebound before continuing with its long-term downtrend. In this case, most likely Pworth is unable to go through with its proposed corporate exercise.

.

Ron95 - Up again. Why?

Government has just announced the new price for Ron95 from 7 September to 13 September. It is Rm2.20 a litre, up 4 sens.

Since the starting of August, world crude oil prices have been dropping until the current week and yet our Ron95 prices have been moving up continuously from Rm2.07 to Rm2.20.

Looking at the previous week's weekly candlestick for crude oil WTI, the high is US$48.20, low is US$45.58 and it closed the week at US$47.29

Comparing these prices with its previous weekly candlestick high of US$48.75, low of US$47.03 and closing of US$47.87, I really don't understand why the price can go up by 4 sens. I feel that the government should make public the way they compute the prices.

.

Dow - At best is forming its sub-wave iv

Dow dropped 234 points or 1.07% on Tuesday to close at 21,753 level.

With this drop, I can ruled out the option of mini wave 7 of sub-wave v that I have mentioned previously. Now I am left with only my third option of sub-wave vi formation.

.

Weekly Update

Dow (21,987)

Dow moved higher from Tuesday to Friday and it helped me to eliminate the one possibility that the major wave 7 has ended.

The remaining two possibilities are :

1. Dow is forming its sub-wave v

2. Dow is forming the wave c of its sub-wave vi.

FBMKLCI (1,773)

KLCI is forming its sub-wave iii.

When I compared the KLCI to the Industrial Index, I noticed that since the August's high, KLCI has a maximum drop of 1.34%. After last Friday's surge, the net drop from its August's high is only 0.5%.

Whereas the Industrial index dropped a total 3.34% from its August's high. With last Friday's surge the net drop from its August's high is 2.55%. I would say that the Industrial index is more reflective of the overall market condition.

Olympia Industries Bhd (Rm 0.15)

Core business :
1. Lotteries 3D, 4D & Lotto 6/45 gaming in Sabah,
2. Office space leasing of Menara Olympia in KL
3. Stockbroking operations under Jupiter Securities Sdn Bhd
4. Property development in Kenny Height KL

For quarter ending 30th June 2017, its earning per share is 1.3 sen and net assets at 39 sens a share. The good earning was due to a one-off Rm58.8 million from sale of development land at Kenny Height.

The stock price of Olympia has been moving lower in the last 20 years. Is the last low at 7.5 sens in December 2016 the bottom ?

Since 2009 its OBV has been building up strongly indicating accumulation.

Since January this year it has formed a 5-wave wave (i) and a a-b-c wave (ii). Is the current up-trend since early August the starting of wave (iii)? It is encouraging to note that its OBV has moved into record territory.

.