A Happy and Prosperous 2011

CRB-BDI-Dow

In the past the general belief is when the economy is doing well consumption will go up, stock market (Dow) will go up, manufacturing will go up, commodity price (CRB) will go up and shipping rate for transportation of dry bulk cargoes (BDI) will go up. The reverse is also believed to be true, when economy is no good, consumption will come down, Dow will drop, CRB and BDI will also drop.

Looking at the above chart of CRB-BDI-Dow, the three indices moved in tandem before October 2007 and also during the period from July 2008 to March 2009 when commodity prices collapsed.

The period between October 2007 and July 2008 the three indices did not move in tandem and starting from September 2010, three months ago, I noticed that the BDI is the first index that started to move in a different direction to Dow and CRB. This is not a good sign to me.

Is it possible that BDI is the only index that is telling the true on the state of world economy of high unemployment, low consumption and low industrial output? Whereas the commodity price is being supported by speculative buying by the hedge fund/pension fund as in 2008; as well as a lost of confidence in the US dollars (Buy Gold). As for Dow, is it being supported by all means by the big fishes to have an orderly retreat from the stock market? This is a big question only the insiders can answer.

The Parlour - Toffeeccino

As she was tired from walking and it was cold outside, she went into a wonderous place called The Parlour and ordered a magical elixir called Toffeeccino.



Then, it arrived - the Toffeeccino, coffee and milk topped with rich cream and toffee drizzle with a serving of butterscotch flavoured frozen cream on the side in a little wafer cone. It was a beautiful sight to behold, and it was gloriously hers all alone.



As she popped the little cone with butterscotch flavoured frozen cream into her mouth, thoughts of happiness came to her mind. She remembered the time when she sat at the steps of a church in Venice with her sister having Italian frozen flavoured cream, and the times when she and her friends went to have flavoured frozen cream after school and best of all, the times where her mother said she could buy frozen cream from the man with the bell.



Next, she lifted the little spoon that came with the Toffeeccino and dipped it into cream and toffee to create a little hole. Then she lifted the cup to her nose to inhale the aroma of the coffee, and tipped the cup slowly pouring the content into her mouth. As the comfortable warmth of the coffee and milk swirled around her mouth, contrasted with the cool rich cream, she sighed. It was heavenly and each sip reminded her of a different happy memory, of family and friends, and her adventures around the world, all the way back to the time that her mother allowed her to try coffee for the first time.

Hang Seng and STI - Head and Shoulders

Buyers managed to push the index back to above the neckline in the last few trading sessions after the index has briefly dipped below the neckline for two days. It remains a question mark whether the 'head and shoulders' will formed.


Singapore STI has managed to stay above the neckline so far. It is looking at Dow for the next move. Until the New Year, market can be very quiet, some players are talking about possible window dressing activity.

PAPAYA - A Cancer Curing Fruit

Papaya was the only studied food found to halt breast cancer

Scientists studied 14 plant foods commonly consumed in Mexico to determine their ability to halt breast cancer cell growth, they found that only papaya had a significant effect on stopping breast cancer cell growth. (International Journal of Food Science and Nutrition, May).

The intense orangey-pink color of papaya means it is chock full of cancer fighting carotenoids. Not only beta carotene, but lycopene is found in abundance. Epidemiological studies have indicated an inverse relationship between lycopene intake and prostate cancer risk. In addition to antioxidant activity, other experiments have indicated that lycopene induces cancer cell death, anti-metastatic activity, and the up-regulation of protective enzymes. (Cancer Letter, October 8, 2008)

Prostate cancer was the subject of a study in Australia that looked at 130 prostate cancer patients and 274 hospitalized controls.

Scientists found that men who consumed the most lycopene-rich fruits and vegetables such as papaya were 82% less likely to have prostate cancer. In this study, green tea also exerted a powerful anti-cancer effect. When lycopene-rich foods were consumed with green tea, the combination was even more effective, an outcome the researchers credited to their synergy. ( Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 2007)

Isothiocyanates found in papaya restore the cell cycle to eliminate cancer

Organo-sulfur compounds called isothiocyanates are found in papaya. In animal experiments, isothiocyanates protected against cancers of the breast, lung, colon pancreas, and prostate, as well as leukeomia, and they have the potential to prevent cancer in humans. Isothiocyanates have shown themselves capable of inhibiting both the formation and development of cancer cells through multiple pathways and mechanisms. (International Journal of Oncology), October, 2008)

Papaya contains fibrin, another useful compound not readily found in the plant kingdom. Fibrin reduces the risk of blood clots and improves the quality of blood cells, optimizing the ability of blood to flow through the circulatory system. Fibrin is also important in preventing stokes.

Merry Christmas

Hi MamaOng,
Hi Shen,
Hi Hui
Hi Wee
Hi Friends,
Merry Christmas

Dow - How to know whether the major wave C has started

Refer to my previous posts, assuming Dow has been forming a mega wave 6 since October 2009's peak, if my hypothesis is correct and Dow is at the final journey of the wave b rebound, to know whether the major wave c has started is very important.

Refer to the above chart and the resistance line Y-Y, the first indication that major wave c has started is when Dow moved below the line Y-Y. And when it dropped below the low of wave 4 of around 11,000, to me, it is definitely 'major wave c in motion'.

An interesting article

Click to read "British Housewife Speaks Out".

Winter Solstice Festival - December 22

Winter Solstice occurs exactly when Earth's axial tilt is furthest away from the sun at its maximum of 23 degree 26'. It provides the longest night of the year.

Tomorrow, December 22, is the 'Dongzhi' Festival's for Chinese. In the olden days this festival was the 2nd most important festival, all the family members that were working away from home were expected to return home for the reunion dinner and to stay back until the 15th day of the Chinese new Year before leaving home for another year for their businesses or works again.



Glutinous rice ball in sugar syrup is the first item to serve the family members early in the morning. In the olden days, after eating the rice ball, one could consider himself one year older. For 'Teochew', married daughters are forbidden to see the rice ball, don't talk about eating the rice ball. The saying is that the wealth and prosperity of the family would leak to their in-law's family.

In the Chinese Lunar Calender, there are these things called 24 seasons that are fixed according to the sun's movement for agriculture purpose to guide the farmers in their farming activities. The Winter solstice or Dongzhi is the 22nd season.




During the Warring States period before 221 BC, the ancient Chinese had only two seasons in a year, Spring and Autumn. That is why that warring period in Chinese history is referred to as Spring Autumn Warring States.



It was during the Qin Dynasty that a year was divided into seasons based on the sun's movement for purpose of better farm management and for coordinating agriculture activities.


Based on historical record, the current 24 seasons were established during the Han dynasty at around 104 BC

Courtesy of Allen Tsai

The ancient Chinese determined the seasons by observing the movement through measuring the length and direction of the shadow of a pole as well as the orientation of the Big Dipper at night. For example, they noticed that when the Dipper points to the east, it is spring; points to the south, it's summer; points to the west, it's autumn and when the Dipper points to the north, it's winter.

They were also able to find out the length of one complete solar cycle was 365.25 days. They also found out the discrepancy between the a solar cycle (year) that has 365.25 days and a lunar year formed by 12 lunar cycles that has 355 days. The difference is 10 days. To solve the problem, they added an extra lunar month to the year, once every 3 years. That is why the Chinese New Year that is based on lunar calender keeps on shifting between mid-January to mid-February. Without this 13 months arrangement once every 3 years, the Chinese would have cerebrated the Chinese New Year in August like the Muslim Hari Raya Puasa. Hehehe.

(Courtesy of Allen Tsai)

Christmas Card

I was in fantastic mode this morning because my friend sent me a Christmas card, a very cute Christmas card from a very good friend, a good old friend of mine. Can not ask for more from dear Santa Claus.

Want to see the card that I received? Just click Christmas Card.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Dow - When will the current wave 5 of iii end ?

After the property bubble collapsed in 1989, Nikkei dropped 54% in 5 years from 38,916 to 17,913 and it reached its real bottom in 2003 at 7,972 for an ultimate 79% drop after 13 years. Will the Dow behave in a similar way?


From the long-term wave count, the mega wave 5 has ended and it appeared that Dow is heading for a 'Head and Shoulders' formation. If mega wave 5 is the end of the super cycle wave (III) that started in 1932 after the Great Depression, Dow is currently forming the super cycle wave (IV) that can easily last for 10 years or more.


Another possibility is that the super cycle wave (III) has 9 waves and Dow is forming its mega wave 6 since October 2007 and it may last until 2012 (5 years same as wave (II)) if it takes the form of a simple a-b-c.


Dow is currently at its wave 5 of major wave iii. When will the wave 5 end? I don't know. There is a possibility that Dow is being supported at this moment so that the big fish can have time to clear out from the Asia Pacific Markets. It also appeared to me that Hang Seng has started its downtrend, the rebound since March 2009 has already ended. If the 'Head and shoulders' reversal pattern can be confirmed next week, Hang Seng will start to move lower at a faster pace.


When will the Malaysian market turn south? I don't think I am able to answer this question. In the last market peak, Dow started to go south in October 2007 but the Malaysian market continued to move up to set its peak in January 2008, lagging behind the Dow by 3 months as shown below.



The longer term chart pattern for Dow, Hang Seng and KLCI have shown great similarity and it is normal for them to have short term variations amongst them. To clear out of the market early can be a safe action but may miss the juicy last surge for certain stocks. Gamuda-WD can be one of them.

Hang Seng - Head and Shoulders Pending

Is the major B wave for Hang Seng completed?

Looking at the line chart, until Friday, the index is resting on top of the neckline. To complete the 'head and shoulders' pattern, the index has to go below the neckline and pull away. The volume pattern is a classical 'head and shoulders' pattern.

Based on candlesticks chart, the index is slightly below its neckline. The moment 'head and shoulders' is confirmed formed, the bear market rebound since March 2009 can be said completed. The next wave will be the major wave C that can go all the way down to below wave A. I believe Hang Seng is moving ahead of Dow that I believe will follow the footpath of Hang Seng.

History of Malaya

Can click on Picture essay to have a look at some valuable photos and Malaya history

Story of an aging couple

This is a story of an aging couple told by their son who was President of NBC NEWS.

This is a wonderful piece by Michael Gartner, editor of newspapers large and small and president of NBC News. In 1997, he won the Pulitzer Prize for editorial writing. It is well worth reading, and a few good chuckles are guaranteed. Here goes...

My father never drove a car. Well, that's not quite right. I should say I never saw him drive a car.

He quit driving in 1927, when he was 25 years old, and the last car he drove was a 1926 Whippet.

"In those days," he told me when he was in his 90s, "to drive a car you had to do things with your hands, and do things with your feet, and look every which way, and I decided you could walk through life and enjoy it or drive through life and miss it."

At which point my mother, a sometimes salty Irishwoman, chimed in:
"Oh, bull shit!" she said. "He hit a horse."

"Well," my father said, "there was that, too."

So my brother and I grew up in a household without a car. The neighbors all had cars -- the Kollingses next door had a green 1941Dodge, the VanLaninghams across the street a gray 1936 Plymouth, the Hopsons two doors down a black 1941 Ford -- but we had none.

My father, a newspaperman in Des Moines , would take the streetcar to work and, often as not, walk the 3 miles home. If he took the streetcar home, my mother and brother and I would walk the three blocks to the streetcar stop, meet him and walk home together.

My brother, David, was born in 1935, and I was born in 1938, and sometimes, at dinner, we'd ask how come all the neighbors had cars but we had none. "No one in the family drives," my mother would explain, and that was that.

But, sometimes, my father would say, "But as soon as one of you boys turns 16, we'll get one." It was as if he wasn't sure which one of us would turn 16 first.

But, sure enough , my brother turned 16 before I did, so in 1951 my parents bought a used 1950 Chevrolet from a friend who ran the parts department at a Chevy dealership downtown.

It was a four-door, white model, stick shift, fender skirts, loaded with everything, and, since my parents didn't drive, it more or less became my brother's car.

Having a car but not being able to drive didn't bother my father, but it didn't make sense to my mother.

So in 1952, when she was 43 years old, she asked a friend to teach her to drive. She learned in a nearby cemetery, the place where I learned to drive the following year and where, a generation later, I took my two sons to practice driving. The cemetery probably was my father's idea. "Who can your mother hurt in the cemetery?" I remember him saying more than once.

For the next 45 years or so, until she was 90, my mother was the driver in the family. Neither she nor my father had any sense of direction, but he loaded up on maps -- though they seldom left the city limits -- and appointed himself navigator. It seemed to work.

Still, they both continued to walk a lot. My mother was a devout Catholic, and my father an equally devout agnostic, an arrangement that didn't seem to bother either of them through their 75 years of marriage.

(Yes, 75 years, and they were deeply in love the entire time.)

He retired when he was 70, and nearly every morning for the next 20 years or so, he would walk with her the mile to St. Augustin's Church.
She would walk down and sit in the front pew, and he would wait in the back until he saw which of the parish's two priests was on duty that morning. If it was the pastor, my father then would go out and take a 2-mile walk, meeting my mother at the end of the service and walking her home.

If it was the assistant pastor, he'd take just a 1-mile walk and then head back to the church. He called the priests "Father Fast" and "Father Slow."

After he retired, my father almost always accompanied my mother whenever she drove anywhere, even if he had no reason to go along. If she were going to the beauty parlor, he'd sit in the car and read, or go take a stroll or, if it was summer, have her keep the engine running so he could listen to the Cubs game on the radio. In the evening, then, when I'd stop by, he'd explain: "The Cubs lost again. The millionaire on second base made a bad throw to the millionaire on first base, so the multimillionaire on third base scored."

If she were going to the grocery store, he would go along to carry the bags out -- and to make sure she loaded up on ice cream. As I said, he was always the navigator, and once, when he was 95 and she was 88 and still driving, he said to me, "Do you want to know the secret of a long life?"

"I guess so," I said, knowing it probably would be something bizarre.

"No left turns," he said.

"What?" I asked

"No left turns," he repeated. "Several years ago, your mother and I read an article that said most accidents that old people are in happen when they turn left in front of oncoming traffic..

As you get older, your eyesight worsens, and you can lose your depth perception, it said. So your mother and I decided never again to make a left turn."

"What?" I said again.

"No left turns," he said. "Think about it.. Three rights are the same as a left, and that's a lot safer. So we always make three rights."

"You're kidding!" I said, and I turned to my mother for support.
"No," she said, "your father is right. We make three rights. It works."
But then she added: "Except when your father loses count."

I was driving at the time, and I almost drove off the road as I started laughing.

"Loses count?" I asked.

"Yes," my father admitted, "that sometimes happens. But it's not a problem. You just make seven rights, and you're okay again."

I couldn't resist. "Do you ever go for 11?" I asked.

"No," he said " If we miss it at seven, we just come home and call it a bad day. Besides, nothing in life is so important it can't be put off another day or another week."
My mother was never in an accident, but one evening she handed me her car keys and said she had decided to quit driving. That was in 1999, when she was 90.

She lived four more years, until 2003.. My father died the next year, at 102.

They both died in the bungalow they had moved into in 1937 and bought a few years later for $3,000. (Sixty years later, my brother and I paid $8,000 to have a shower put in the tiny bathroom -- the house had never had one. My father would have died then and there if he knew the shower cost nearly three times what he paid for the house.)

He continued to walk daily -- he had me get him a treadmill when he was 101 because he was afraid he'd fall on the icy sidewalks but wanted to keep exercising -- and he was of sound mind and sound body until the moment he died.

One September afternoon in 2004, he and my son went with me when I had to give a talk in a neighboring town, and it was clear to all three of us that he was wearing out, though we had the usual wide-ranging conversation about politics and newspapers and things in the news.

A few weeks earlier, he had told my son, "You know, Mike, the first hundred years are a lot easier than the second hundred." At one point in our drive that Saturday, he said, "You know, I'm probably not going to live much longer."

"You're probably right," I said.

"Why would you say that?" He countered, somewhat irritated.

"Because you're 102 years old," I said..

"Yes," he said, "you're right." He stayed in bed all the next day.

That night, I suggested to my son and daughter that we sit up with him through the night

He appreciated it, he said, though at one point, apparently seeing us look gloomy, he said:
"I would like to make an announcement. No one in this room is dead yet"

An hour or so later, he spoke his last words:

"I want you to know," he said, clearly and lucidly, "that I am in no pain. I am very comfortable. And I have had as happy a life as anyone on this earth could ever have."

A short time later, he died.

I miss him a lot, and I think about him a lot. I've wondered now and then how it was that my family and I were so lucky that he lived so long.

I can't figure out if it was because he walked through life,
Or because he quit taking left turns. "

Life is too short to wake up with regrets.
So love the people who treat you right.
Forget about the ones who don't.
Believe everything happens for a reason.
If you get a chance,take it & if it changes your life, let it.
Nobody said life would be easy, they just promised it would most likely be worth it."

Hang Seng and Singapore STI - Watch out for Head and Shoulders

Dow is on its way to complete the wave v of its major wave (3) of its mega wave B. Now that wave v is slightly above its wave iii level, it is possible for wave v to end anytime. Wave v can be quite unpredictable, it can have a failure v if it starts to turn down from here and it can also be extended if it continues to inch its way upward for another few months. Must monitor very closely for possible sign and indication.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index

Hang Seng dropped 455 points (2%) to 22975 today to move closer to its neckline to complete its 'head and shoulders' reversal pattern. If it plunges through its neckline with high volume, its next support is 20,500.

Singapore STI

Singapore STI dropped about 30 points (1%) to close at 3147. Same as Hang Seng, it is also heading for a 'head and shoulders' reversal pattern. Has the bear market rebound since March 2009 ended? The possibility is there.

Heveaboard Berhad

The Group's principal activities are manufacturing and selling of ready to assemble particleboard furniture and other panel wood products.




Its earning per share has improved to 23 sens for 2009. Its last quarter (ending September 2010) earning is 5.65 sens per share, and cumulative earning from January 2010 to September 2010 (3 quarters) is 19.55 sens. Projected earning for 2010 is 25 sens per share. Its net assets per shares is Rm 2.02. Selling at 72 sens, this stock is greatly undervalued.



It has completed its major wave (I) & (II) and wave 1 & 2


Heveaboard gained 4.5 sens today to close at 72 sens with 1.3 million shares traded, it is possible that its wave 3 of major wave (III) has started.

Wikileaks - Don't Play Play

To read more just click Big Fat Red Faces for Singapore Leaders

Accoding to reports, this is a "set-up job" that Anwar Ibrahim "walked into"

For other opinion on this issue, can click Malaysian - Forget about Wikileaks.

Don't forget to read the comment by anonymous 13 Dec 2010 at 13:06, sound logical.

Dutaland, YTLE and Karambunai

Dutaland gained 4 sens last Friday with moderate volume of 4.1 million shares. Has sub-wave iii started?


It appeared to me that YTLE has completed its wave 4 of its major wave (V). It gained 8 sens last Friday with a moderately high volume of 5.1 million shares. It is possible that its wave 5 has started.



In my previous wave count for Karambunai, I did not refer to the semi-log chart. I have missed out one wave, the wave 1-2 at the beginning of the current run-up.

By using a semi-log scale for the chart, Karambunai has completed 5 waves. The question here is whether its major wave (3) has 5 or 9 waves. If major wave (3) has only 5 waves, then the major wave (3) has completed and it is forming its wave (4) at this moment. However if major wave (3) has 9 waves, watch out for its wave 7.

Fairytale Destinations

My friend emailed me the followings that I like to share with the rest of my friends.

Colmar, France

Picturesque Colmar in France, looks like it came straight out of a fairy tale. This tiny town in Alsace, Colmar is called the "Capital of Alsatian Wine". With its pretty squares, fountains and canals, it is also called the "little Venice" (la Petite Venise).

Faroe Islands

‘The Lord of the Rings' scenery of Faroe Islands truly makes you believe the archipelago is inhabited by hobbits and elves. Located halfway between Iceland and Norway, in the heart of the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic, the 18-island archipelago is home to beautiful dramatic landscapes of volcanic peaks and oceanic waves hitting against the rocky shoreline.

Neuschwanstein Castle, Germany

The Neuschwanstein Castle was constructed on a rugged hill in the 19th century for Ludwig II, the castle's fixtures were revolutionary at that time: the building had running water and toilets with automatic flushing on every floor as well as a heating system. Today, the Neuschwanstein is the main stop on the Romantic Road, the Bavarian trail of ancient towns and castles.

Cappadocia, Turkey

If there was a fairy tale about the enchanted land of clay, its setting would look like Cappadocia. Located in central Turkey it is famed for its pottery and unique rock formation in which the ancient people carved out their houses and churches. The region is also home to the odd-looking rock formations called "fairy chimneys" that can be found in various shapes such as cones, mushroom-like forms, columns and pointed rocks.

Hoi An, Vietnam

Hoi An in Vietnam is home to more silk lanterns than people. Situated on the coast of the South China Sea, the town used to be an important port and trading centre. Hoi An's fabulous atmosphere blended with captivating hospitality and fairytale architecture make the town one of the most rewarding destination in South-East Asia.

Greenland

Unspoiled, remote and untraveled, Greenland is a land of wilderness, unbeaten tracks, raw landscapes and jaw-dropping vistas. Though cold and rugged, Greenland is a place of unforgettable atmosphere warmed up by the magical aurora borealis and colourfully painted houses.

Bamboo Forest, Japan

Located in Kyoto, Japan, the landscape of the Bamboo Forest resembles the scenery of the Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Bamboo is a symbol of longevity in China, a symbol of friendship in India, and in Japan many Shinto shrines are surrounded by a bamboo forest which is considered a sacred barrier against the evil.